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The economic effects of Brexit - evidence from the stock market

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  • Breinlich, Holger
  • Leromain, Elsa
  • Novy, Dennis
  • Sampson, Thomas
  • Usman, Ahmed

Abstract

We study stock market reactions to the Brexit referendum on 23 June 2016 in order to assess investors' expectations about the effects of leaving the European Union on the UK economy. Our results suggest that initial stock price movements were driven by fears of a cyclical downturn and by the sterling depreciation following the referendum. We also find tentative evidence that market reactions to two subsequent speeches by Theresa May (her Conservative Party conference and Lancaster House speeches) were more closely correlated with potential changes to tariffs and non-tariff barriers on UK-EU trade, indicating that investors may have updated their expectations in light of the possibility of a `hard Brexit'. We do not find a correlation between the share of EU migrants in different industries and stock market returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Breinlich, Holger & Leromain, Elsa & Novy, Dennis & Sampson, Thomas & Usman, Ahmed, 2018. "The economic effects of Brexit - evidence from the stock market," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90219, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:90219
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/90219/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson, 2019. "Exchange Rates and Consumer Prices: Evidence from Brexit," CESifo Working Paper Series 8001, CESifo.
    2. Tarek Alexander Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2020. "The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-332, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    3. Hassan, Tarek Alexander & Hollander, Stephan & Tahoun, Ahmed & van Lent, Laurence, 2019. "The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 14253, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Breinlich, Holger & Leromain, Elsa & Novy, Dennis & Sampson, Thomas, 2020. "Voting with their money: Brexit and outward investment by UK firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    5. Andreas Dür & Christoph Moser & Gabriele Spilker, 0. "The political economy of the European Union," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-12.
    6. Egger, Peter & Zhu, Jiaqing, 2019. "The U.S.-Chinese Trade War: An Event Study of Stock-Market Responses," CEPR Discussion Papers 14164, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Andreas Dür & Christoph Moser & Gabriele Spilker, 2020. "The political economy of the European Union," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 561-572, July.
    8. Hinz, Julian & Leromain, Elsa, 2020. "Critically important: the heterogeneous effect of diplomatic tensions on trade," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 105817, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; depreciation; event study; recession; stock market; tariffs; ES/R001804/1;

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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