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The economic consequences of the Brexit Vote

Author

Listed:
  • Born, Benjamin
  • Müller, Gernot J.
  • Schularick, Moritz
  • Sedlacek, Petr

Abstract

This paper introduces a data-driven, transparent and unbiased method to calculate the economic costs of the Brexit vote in June 2016. We let a matching algorithm determine a combination of comparison economies that best resembles the growth path of the UK economy before the Brexit referendum. The economic cost of the Brexit vote is the difference in output between the UK economy and and its synthetic doppelganger. We show that, contrary to public perception, by the third quarter of 2017 the economic costs of the Brexit vote are already 1.3% of GDP. The cumulative costs amount to almost 20 billion pounds and are expected to grow to more than 60 billion pounds by end-2018. We provide evidence that heightened policy uncertainty has already taken a toll on investment and consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Born, Benjamin & Müller, Gernot J. & Schularick, Moritz & Sedlacek, Petr, 2017. "The economic consequences of the Brexit Vote," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87174, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:87174
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    File URL: https://researchonline.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/87174/
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    Cited by:

    1. Hobijn, Bart & Nechio, Fernanda & Shapiro, Adam Hale, 2021. "Using Brexit to identify the nature of price rigidities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    2. Deyan Radev & Georgi Penev, 2022. "Brexit and the Fintech Revolution in Europe - Lessons from the Bulgarian Digital Finance Cluster," Bulgarian Economic Papers bep-2022-07, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski - Bulgaria // Center for Economic Theories and Policies at Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski, revised Aug 2022.
    3. Ilhamah Qiamy & Fahim Nawaz & Syed Umair Jalal, 2018. "The United Kingdom and Brexit: Implications, Consequences and Opportunities," Global Economics Review, Humanity Only, vol. 3(2), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson & Ahmed Usman, 2018. "The Economic Effects of Brexit: Evidence from the Stock Market," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 581-623, December.
    5. Hamdi Jbir, 2025. "Does financial stability communication affect financial asset prices? Evidence from the Bank of England's communication experiment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 1831-1855, April.
    6. Barry Eichengreen & William Jungerman & Mingyang Liu, 2020. "Brexit, the City of London, and the prospects for portfolio investment," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 1-16, February.
    7. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2019. "Stock Market Reactions to Brexit: Case of Selected CEE and SEE Stock Markets," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-14, January.
    8. Martin Braml & Gabriel Felbermayr, 2019. "Quo vadis, Brexitannia?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(02), pages 32-39, January.
    9. Catherine Georgiou, 2020. "The British Stock Market under the Structure of Market Capitalization Value: New Evidence on its Predictive Content," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 13(3), pages 56-69, December.
    10. Maricel Linares Giraldo & William Rodrigo Avenda�o Castro & Johanna Milena Mogrovejo Andrade, 2020. "Implicaciones geopolíticas y económicas del Brexit en la Unión Europea," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 36(70), pages 14-41.
    11. Kym Anderson & Glyn Wittwer, 2018. "Cumulative Effects of Brexit and Other UK and EU27 Bilateral FTAs on the World's Wine Markets," Wine Economics Research Centre Working Papers 2018-01, University of Adelaide, Wine Economics Research Centre.
    12. Anderson, Kym & Wittwer, Glyn, 2018. "Cumulative Effects of Brexit and Other UK and EU27 Bilateral FTAs on the World’s Wine Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 12621, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Douch, Mustaph & Huw Edwards, T., 2021. "The Brexit policy shock: Were UK services exports affected, and when?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 248-263.
    14. Paul J. J. Welfens & Tian Xiong, 2019. "BREXIT perspectives: financial market dynamics, welfare aspects and problems from slower growth," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 215-265, March.
    15. Kevin Ralston & Dawn Everington & Zhiqiang Feng & Chris Dibben, 2022. "Economic Inactivity, Not in Employment, Education or Training (NEET) and Scarring: The Importance of NEET as a Marker of Long-Term Disadvantage," Work, Employment & Society, British Sociological Association, vol. 36(1), pages 59-79, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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