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The Economic Effects of Brexit - Evidence from the Stock Market

Author

Listed:
  • Holger Breinlich
  • Elsa Leromain
  • Dennis Novy
  • Thomas Sampson
  • Ahmed Usman

Abstract

We study stock market reactions to the Brexit referendum on 23 June 2016 in order to assess investors’ expectations about the effects of leaving the European Union on the UK economy. Our results suggest that initial stock price movements were driven by fears of a cyclical downturn and by the sterling depreciation following the referendum. We also find tentative evidence that market reactions to two subsequent speeches by Theresa May (her Conservative Party conference and Lancaster House speeches) were more closely correlated with potential changes to tariffs and non-tariff barriers on UK-EU trade, indicating that investors may have updated their expectations in light of the possibility of a ‘hard Brexit’. We do not find a correlation between the share of EU migrants in different industries and stock market returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson & Ahmed Usman, 2018. "The Economic Effects of Brexit - Evidence from the Stock Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 7224, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7224
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Breinlich, Holger & Leromain, Elsa & Novy, Dennis & Sampson, Thomas, 2020. "Voting with their money: Brexit and outward investment by UK firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    2. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson, 2019. "Exchange Rates and Consumer Prices: Evidence from Brexit," CESifo Working Paper Series 8001, CESifo.
    3. Galán-Gutiérrez, Juan Antonio & Martín-García, Rodrigo, 2021. "Cointegration between the structure of copper futures prices and Brexit," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Tarek Alexander Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2020. "The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-332, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    5. Hassan, Tarek Alexander & Hollander, Stephan & Tahoun, Ahmed & van Lent, Laurence, 2019. "The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 14253, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Mengxu Xiong, 2021. "Uncertainty in the Pandemic and the Energy Stock Market - Evidence From China," Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 2(3), pages 1-4.
    7. Julian Hinz & Elsa Leromain, 2020. "Critically Important: The Heterogeneous Effect of Diplomatic Tensions on Trade," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 57(2), pages 309-331, September.
    8. Andreas Dür & Christoph Moser & Gabriele Spilker, 0. "The political economy of the European Union," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-12.
    9. Andreas Dür & Christoph Moser & Gabriele Spilker, 2020. "The political economy of the European Union," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 561-572, July.
    10. Dmitry Matveev & Francisco Ruge-Murcia, 2020. "Tariffs and the Exchange Rate : Evidence from Twitter," Cahiers de recherche 19-2020, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    11. Egger, Peter & Zhu, Jiaqing, 2019. "The U.S.-Chinese Trade War: An Event Study of Stock-Market Responses," CEPR Discussion Papers 14164, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Samir Kadiric, 2020. "The determinants of sovereign risk premiums in the UK and the European government bond market: The impact of Brexit," EIIW Discussion paper disbei271, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    13. Berg, Tobias & Saunders, Anthony & Schäfer, Larissa & Steffen, Sascha, 2021. "Brexit and the contraction of syndicated lending," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 66-82.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; depreciation; event study; recession; stock market; tariffs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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