IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/econjl/v129y2019i623p2722-2744..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin Born
  • Gernot J Müller
  • Moritz Schularick
  • Petr Sedláček

Abstract

Economic nationalism is on the rise, but at what cost? We study this question using the unexpected outcome of the Brexit referendum vote as a natural macroeconomic experiment. Employing synthetic control methods,we first show that the Brexit vote has caused a UK output loss of 1.7% to 2.5% by year-end 2018. An expectations-augmented VAR suggests that these costs are, to a large extent, driven by a downward revision of growth expectations in response to the vote. Linking quasi-experimental identification to structural time-series estimation allows us not only to quantify the aggregate costs but also to understand the channels through which expected economic disintegration impacts the macroeconomy.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Born & Gernot J Müller & Moritz Schularick & Petr Sedláček, 2019. "The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2722-2744.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:129:y:2019:i:623:p:2722-2744.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ej/uez020
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ellen R. McGrattan & Andrea Waddle, 2020. "The Impact of Brexit on Foreign Investment and Production," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 76-103, January.
    2. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    3. Campos, Nauro F & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Moretti, Luigi, 2014. "Economic Growth and Political Integration: Estimating the Benefits from Membership in the European Union Using the Synthetic Counterfactuals Method," CEPR Discussion Papers 9968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Connell, William & Simons, Wouter & Vandenbussche, Hylke, 2017. "Global Value Chains, Trade Shocks And Jobs: An Application to Brexit," CEPR Discussion Papers 12303, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Forte, Giuseppe & Portes, Jonathan, 2017. "Macroeconomic Determinants of International Migration to the UK," GLO Discussion Paper Series 69, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    6. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    7. Vikash Ramiah & Huy N. A. Pham & Imad Moosa, 2017. "The sectoral effects of Brexit on the British economy: early evidence from the reaction of the stock market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(26), pages 2508-2514, June.
    8. Sampson, Thomas, 2017. "Brexit: the economics of international disintegration," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86591, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Ebell, Monique & Hurst, Ian & Warren, James, 2016. "Modelling the long-run economic impact of leaving the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 196-209.
    10. Monique Ebell & James Warren, 2016. "The Long-Term Economic Impact of Leaving the EU," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 236(1), pages 121-138, May.
    11. Graham Gudgin & Ken Coutts & Neil Gibson & Jordan Buchanan, 2016. "The Macro-Economic Impact of Brexit: Using the CBR Macro-Economic Model of the UK Economy (UKMOD)," Working Papers wp483, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Born, Benjamin & M�ller, Gernot & Schularick, Moritz & Sedlacek, Petr, 2017. "The Economic Consequences of the Brexit Vote," CEPR Discussion Papers 12454, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Swati Dhingra & Thomas Sampson, 2022. "Expecting Brexit," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 495-519, August.
    3. Patrick Bisciari, 2019. "A survey of the long-term impact of Brexit on the UK and the EU27 economies," Working Paper Research 366, National Bank of Belgium.
    4. Stefano Costalli & Luigi Moretti & Costantino Pischedda, 2014. "The Economic Costs of Civil War: Synthetic Counterfactual Evidence and the Effects of Ethnic Fractionalization," HiCN Working Papers 184, Households in Conflict Network.
    5. Polyzos, Stathis & Samitas, Aristeidis & Katsaiti, Marina-Selini, 2020. "Who is unhappy for Brexit? A machine-learning, agent-based study on financial instability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    6. Jacob Bundrick & Weici Yuan, 2019. "Do Targeted Business Subsidies Improve Income and Reduce Poverty? A Synthetic Control Approach," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 33(4), pages 351-375, November.
    7. Nauro Campos & Fabrizio Coricelli & Luigi Moretti, 2015. "Norwegian Rhapsody? The Political Economy Benefits of Regional Integration," Working Papers halshs-01267252, HAL.
    8. Diop, Samba & Asongu, Simplice & Tchamyou, Vanessa, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Recent Political Conflicts in Africa: Generalized Synthetic Counterfactual Evidence," MPRA Paper 110696, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Makram El-Shagi & Axel Lindner & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 37-66, February.
    10. David Comerford & José V Rodríguez Mora & Beata Javorcik, 2019. "The gains from economic integration," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 34(98), pages 201-266.
    11. Ana Venâncio & João Pereira dos Santos, 2022. "The Effect of Brexit on British Workers Living in the EU," CESifo Working Paper Series 9659, CESifo.
    12. Samer Matta & Simon Appleton & Michael Bleaney, 2019. "The Impact of the Arab Spring on the Tunisian Economy," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 33(1), pages 231-258.
    13. Essers, Dennis & Ide, Stefaan, 2019. "The IMF and precautionary lending: An empirical evaluation of the selectivity and effectiveness of the Flexible Credit Line," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 25-61.
    14. Fetzer, Thiemo & Wang, Shizhuo, 2020. "Measuring the Regional Economic Cost of Brexit: Evidence up to 2019," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 486, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    15. Francesca Caselli, 2017. "Did the Exchange Rate Floor Prevent Deflation in the Czech Republic?," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 8(2).
    16. Robert Bifulco & Ross Rubenstein & Hosung Sohn, 2017. "Using Synthetic Controls to Evaluate the Effect of Unique Interventions: The Case of Say Yes to Education," Evaluation Review, , vol. 41(6), pages 593-619, December.
    17. Alena Bachleitner, 2017. "Abolishing the Wealth Tax. A Case Study for Germany," WIFO Working Papers 545, WIFO.
    18. Amat Adarov, 2018. "Eurasian Economic Integration: Impact Evaluation Using the Gravity Model and the Synthetic Control Methods," wiiw Working Papers 150, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    19. Jo Reynaerts & Jakob Vanschoonbeek, 2022. "The economics of state fragmentation: Assessing the economic impact of secession," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 82-115, January.
    20. Constantin Colonescu, 2017. "Macroeconomic Effects of the European Monetary Union: A Counterfactual Analysis," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 3(2), pages 171-186, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:129:y:2019:i:623:p:2722-2744.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/resssea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press or (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/resssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.