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Policy Shocks and Stock Market Returns: Evidence from Chinese Solar Panels

In: Globalization and Welfare Impacts of International Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Meredith Crowley
  • Ning Meng
  • Huasheng Song

Abstract

We examine the stock market performance of publicly-listed Chinese firms in the solar panel industry over 2012 and 2013 in response to announcements of new import restrictions by the European Union and domestic policy changes by the Chinese government. Using daily stock market prices from the Shanghai-Shenzhen, New York and Hong Kong markets, we calculate abnormal returns to several policy changes affecting solar panels produced in China. We find, consistent with the Melitz (2003) model, that larger, more export-oriented firms experienced larger stock market losses in the wake of European trade restriction announcements. We further show that European trade policy had a larger negative effect on Chinese private sector firms relative to state owned enterprises. Finally, we use a two stage least squares estimation technique to show that firms listed on US markets are more responsive to news events than those listed in China and Hong Kong.
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Suggested Citation

  • Meredith Crowley & Ning Meng & Huasheng Song, 2018. "Policy Shocks and Stock Market Returns: Evidence from Chinese Solar Panels," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization and Welfare Impacts of International Trade, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:14337
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    2. Yi Huang & Chen Lin & Sibo Liu & Heiwai Tang, 2018. "Trade Linkages and Firm Value: Evidence from the 2018 US-China “Trade War”," IHEID Working Papers 11-2018, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    3. Metiu, Norbert, 2021. "Anticipation effects of protectionist U.S. trade policies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Francesca de Nicola & Martin Kessler & Ha Nguyen, 2020. "The financial costs of the United States-China trade tensions: evidence from East Asian stock markets," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(4), pages 803-833, November.
    5. Breinlich, Holger, 2015. "The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Firm-Level Profits: An Event-Study Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 11011, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Haoyuan Ding & Bo Pu & Tong Qi & Kai Wang, 2022. "Valuation effects of the US–China trade war: The effects of foreign managers and foreign exposure," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 662-683, July.
    7. Huang, Xuan & An, Haizhong & Fang, Wei & Gao, Xiangyun & Wang, Lijun & Sun, Xiaoqi, 2016. "Impact assessment of international anti-dumping events on synchronization and comovement of the Chinese photovoltaic stocks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 459-469.
    8. Bianconi, Marcelo & Esposito, Federico & Sammon, Marco, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    9. Li, Yanqiong & Li, Dongning & He, Jie, 2025. "Sino–US trade frictions and corporate investment," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Huang, Yi & Lin, Chen & Liu, Sibo & Tang, Heiwai, 2023. "Trade networks and firm value: Evidence from the U.S.-China trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    11. Mary Amiti & Sang Hoon Kong & David Weinstein, 2020. "The Effect of the U.S.-China Trade War on U.S. Investment," NBER Working Papers 27114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson & Ahmed Usman, 2018. "The Economic Effects of Brexit: Evidence from the Stock Market," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 581-623, December.
    13. Sascha Tobias Wengerek, 2020. "Share price reactions to tariff imposition announcements in the Trump era - An event study of the trade conflict," Working Papers Dissertations 59, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    14. Bown,Chad P. & Crowley,Meredith A & Bown,Chad P. & Crowley,Meredith A, 2016. "The empirical landscape of trade policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7620, The World Bank.
    15. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Sandkamp, Alexander, 2020. "The trade effects of anti-dumping duties: Firm-level evidence from China," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    16. Weize Sun & Mingtao Yu & Haotian Zhang & Yifan Zhang, 2022. "Does Uncertainty of Trade Environment Promote Green Technological Innovation? Empirical Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-22, December.
    17. Patrice Bougette and Christophe Charlier, 2018. "Antidumping and Feed-In Tariffs as Good Buddies? Modeling the EU-China Solar Panel Dispute," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
    18. Maosheng Ye & Jim H. Shen & Eric Golson & Chien‐Chiang Lee & Yuting Li, 2022. "The impact of Sino–US trade friction on the performance of China's textile and apparel industry," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 151-166, August.
    19. Liu, Mengxun & Lin, Faqin & Feng, Fan & Xiong, Guang, 2025. "Sino-US trade friction and the firm value: Evidence from listed firms in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 978-987.
    20. Fan, Jiani & Hua, Xiuping & Wang, Miao & Wang, Yong & Zhang, Huayi, 2025. "The impacts of U.S. Section 337 investigations on Chinese technology firms," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(5).
    21. Chad P. Bown & Rachel McCulloch, 2012. "Antidumping and Market Competition: Implications for Emerging Economies," Working Papers 50, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    22. Wang, Kai-Hua & Su, Chi-Wei & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Moldovan, Nicoleta-Claudia, 2020. "Chinese renewable energy industries’ boom and recession: Evidence from bubble detection procedure," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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