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Election Polls, Free Trade, and the Stock Market: Evidence from the 1988 Canadian General Election

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  • James A. Brander

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of public opinion polls on the Toronto Stock Exchange during the campaign period of the 1988 Canadian general election. Two hypotheses are investigated: first, did polls influence the Toronto Stock Exchange and, secondly, if so, did the nature of the influence suggest that investors were reacting to expectations concerning the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement? The author finds that the Toronto Stock Exchange was positively related to Conservative popularity as measured by polls, but that the differential movement of Toronto Stock Exchange subindices, while not inconsistent with a Free Trade Agreement based interpretation, does not offer much additional supporting evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • James A. Brander, 1991. "Election Polls, Free Trade, and the Stock Market: Evidence from the 1988 Canadian General Election," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 24(4), pages 827-843, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:24:y:1991:i:4:p:827-43
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    Cited by:

    1. John Goodell & Richard Bodey, 2012. "Price-earnings changes during US presidential election cycles: voter uncertainty and other determinants," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 633-650, March.
    2. Breinlich, Holger, 2008. "Trade liberalization and industrial restructuring through mergers and acquisitions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 254-266, December.
    3. Basyah, Mohammad & Hartigan, James C., 2007. "Analyst earnings forecast revisions and the persistence of antidumping relief," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 383-399.
    4. Marc J. Melitz & Daniel Trefler, 2012. "Gains from Trade When Firms Matter," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 91-118, Spring.
    5. J. Mutti & R. Sampson & B. Yeung, 2000. "The effects of the Uruguay round: empirical evidence from U.S. industry," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(1), pages 59-69, January.
    6. Breinlich, Holger, 2014. "Heterogeneous firm-level responses to trade liberalization: A test using stock price reactions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 270-285.
    7. Rehbein, Kathleen & Starks, Laura T., 1995. "Changes in U.S. trade policies: the wealth effects on Japanese steel firms," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 309-327, September.
    8. Breinlich, Holger, 2015. "The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Firm-Level Profits: An Event-Study Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 11011, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Yang, Tina & Zhao, Shan, 2014. "CEO duality and firm performance: Evidence from an exogenous shock to the competitive environment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 534-552.
    10. Tirtiroglu, Dogan & Bhabra, Harjeet S. & Lel, Ugur, 2004. "Political uncertainty and asset valuation: Evidence from business relocations in Canada," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2237-2258, September.

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