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Price-earnings changes during US presidential election cycles: voter uncertainty and other determinants

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  • John Goodell
  • Richard Bodey

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  • John Goodell & Richard Bodey, 2012. "Price-earnings changes during US presidential election cycles: voter uncertainty and other determinants," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 633-650, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:150:y:2012:i:3:p:633-650
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-010-9720-8
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    2. Pham, Huy Nguyen Anh & Ramiah, Vikash & Moosa, Nisreen & Huynh, Tam & Pham, Nhi, 2018. "The financial effects of Trumpism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 264-274.
    3. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2016. "The Price of Political Uncertainty: Evidence from the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election and the U.S. Stock Markets," Papers 1612.06200, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2017.
    4. Auld, T., 2022. "Betting and financial markets are cointegrated on election night," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2263, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Marek Szymański & Grzegorz Wojtalik, 2022. "Wpływ wyborów politycznych na ceny akcji na Giełdzie Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 3, pages 290-306.
    6. SingRu Hoe & Srinivas Nippani, 2017. "2016 U.S. Presidential Election and Stock Markets in China," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(7), pages 32-38, July.
    7. Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of political risk shocks," Bank of England working papers 841, Bank of England.
    8. Goodell, John W. & Vähämaa, Sami, 2013. "US presidential elections and implied volatility: The role of political uncertainty," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1108-1117.
    9. Wiesen, Taylor, 2023. "Aggregate earnings and market expectations in United States presidential election prediction markets," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    10. Goodell, John W. & Kumar, Satish & Rao, Purnima & Verma, Shubhangi, 2023. "Emotions and stock market anomalies: A systematic review," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    11. Gerasimos G. Rompotis, 2018. "Political Uncertainty and the Greek Stock Market over the Period 2011-2015," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 1-18.
    12. Goodell, John W. & McGroarty, Frank & Urquhart, Andrew, 2015. "Political uncertainty and the 2012 US presidential election: A cointegration study of prediction markets, polls and a stand-out expert," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 162-171.
    13. Auld, T., 2022. "Political markets as equity price factors," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2264, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    14. Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Demir, Ender & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin, 2013. "Experience-based corporate corruption and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 1-13.
    15. Lukas Timbate & Dongil Kim & Dereje Asrat & Hwang Sungjun, 2024. "Firm-level political uncertainty, corporate lobbying and risk-taking," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Elections; Political business cycle; Political economy; Financial markets; G10; G14; G18;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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