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Price-earnings changes during US presidential election cycles: voter uncertainty and other determinants

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  • John Goodell

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  • Richard Bodey

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Abstract

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Suggested Citation

  • John Goodell & Richard Bodey, 2012. "Price-earnings changes during US presidential election cycles: voter uncertainty and other determinants," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 633-650, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:150:y:2012:i:3:p:633-650
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-010-9720-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Pantzalis, Christos & Stangeland, David A. & Turtle, Harry J., 2000. "Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1575-1604, October.
    3. Knight*, Brian, 2007. "Are policy platforms capitalized into equity prices? Evidence from the Bush/Gore 2000 Presidential Election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1-2), pages 389-409, February.
    4. Geoffrey Brennan & Alan Hamlin, 1998. "Expressive voting and electoral equilibrium," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 95(1), pages 149-175, April.
    5. Andrea Mattozzi, 2008. "Can we insure against political uncertainty? Evidence from the U.S. stock market," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 43-55, October.
    6. Brown, Keith C. & Harlow, W. V. & Tinic, Seha M., 1988. "Risk aversion, uncertain information, and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 355-385, December.
    7. Boucher, Christophe, 2006. "Stock prices-inflation puzzle and the predictability of stock market returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 205-212, February.
    8. Kevin Grier, 2008. "US presidential elections and real GDP growth, 1961–2004," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 337-352, June.
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    10. John Y. Campbell & Glen B. Taksler, 2003. "Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2321-2350, December.
    11. Brekke, Kjell Arne & Kverndokk, Snorre & Nyborg, Karine, 2003. "An economic model of moral motivation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(9-10), pages 1967-1983, September.
    12. Tomasz Wisniewski & Geoffrey Lightfoot & Simon Lilley, 2012. "Speculating on presidential success: exploring the link between the price–earnings ratio and approval ratings," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(1), pages 106-122, January.
    13. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2006. "Valuation ratios and price deviations from fundamentals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2325-2346, August.
    14. Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2005. "Money Illusion in the Stock Market: The Modigliani-Cohn Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(2), pages 639-668.
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    19. James A. Brander, 1991. "Election Polls, Free Trade, and the Stock Market: Evidence from the 1988 Canadian General Election," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 24(4), pages 827-843, November.
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    24. Jayachandran, Seema, 2006. "The Jeffords Effect," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(2), pages 397-425, October.
    25. Ramcharran, Harri, 2002. "An empirical analysis of the determinants of the P/E ratio in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 165-178, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2016. "The Price of Political Uncertainty: Evidence from the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election and the U.S. Stock Markets," Papers 1612.06200, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2017.
    2. Goodell, John W. & Vähämaa, Sami, 2013. "US presidential elections and implied volatility: The role of political uncertainty," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1108-1117.
    3. Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Demir, Ender & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin, 2013. "Experience-based corporate corruption and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 1-13.
    4. Goodell, John W. & McGroarty, Frank & Urquhart, Andrew, 2015. "Political uncertainty and the 2012 US presidential election: A cointegration study of prediction markets, polls and a stand-out expert," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 162-171.
    5. repec:ibn:ijefaa:v:9:y:2017:i:7:p:32-38 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Elections; Political business cycle; Political economy; Financial markets; G10; G14; G18;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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