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Speculating on presidential success: exploring the link between the price–earnings ratio and approval ratings

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  • Tomasz Wisniewski

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  • Geoffrey Lightfoot

    ()

  • Simon Lilley

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Abstract

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Suggested Citation

  • Tomasz Wisniewski & Geoffrey Lightfoot & Simon Lilley, 2012. "Speculating on presidential success: exploring the link between the price–earnings ratio and approval ratings," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(1), pages 106-122, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:36:y:2012:i:1:p:106-122
    DOI: 10.1007/s12197-009-9116-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Mueller, John E., 1970. "Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson1," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(1), pages 18-34, March.
    3. Nikbakht, Ehsan & Polat, Celaleddin, 1998. "A global perspective of P/E ratio determinants: The case of ADRs," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 253-267.
    4. MacKuen, Michael B. & Erikson, Robert S. & Stimson, James A., 1992. "Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(3), pages 597-611, September.
    5. Jedrzej Bialkowski & Katrin Gottschalk & Tomasz Piotr Wisniewski, 2007. "Political orientation of government and stock market returns," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 269-273.
    6. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    7. Pedro Santa‐Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2003. "The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1841-1872, October.
    8. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1989. "Testing for Consistency using Artificial Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 363-384, December.
    9. Ostrom, Charles W. & Simon, Dennis M., 1985. "Promise and Performance: A Dynamic Model of Presidential Popularity," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(2), pages 334-358, June.
    10. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    11. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    12. Harvey, A C, 1980. "On Comparing Regression Models in Levels and First Differences," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(3), pages 707-720, October.
    13. Dennis Halcoussis & Anton Lowenberg & G. Phillips, 2009. "The Obama effect," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 33(3), pages 324-329, July.
    14. Steven Jones & Kevin Banning, 2009. "US elections and monthly stock market returns," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 33(3), pages 273-287, July.
    15. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
    16. Kernell, Samuel, 1978. "Explaining Presidential Popularity: How Ad Hoc Theorizing, Misplaced Emphasis, and Insufficient Care in Measuring One's Variables Refuted Common Sense and Led Conventional Wisdom Down the Path of Anom," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 72(2), pages 506-522, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Berlemann, Michael & Enkelmann, Sören, 2014. "The economic determinants of U.S. presidential approval: A survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 41-54.
    2. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2016. "Is there a link between politics and stock returns? A literature survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 15-23.
    3. John Goodell & Richard Bodey, 2012. "Price-earnings changes during US presidential election cycles: voter uncertainty and other determinants," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 633-650, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political Economy; Price–Earnings Ratio; Presidential Approval; G10; G14; P16;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • P16 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Political Economy of Capitalism

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