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Wpływ wyborów politycznych na ceny akcji na Giełdzie Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie

Author

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  • Marek Szymański
  • Grzegorz Wojtalik

Abstract

Celem artykułu jest zbadanie, czy wyniki wyborów politycznych w Polsce (prezydenckich, parlamentarnych i samorządowych) mają wpływ na notowania akcji na Giełdzie Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie (GPW) oraz kurs polskiej złotówki do dolara amerykańskiego. W artykule opisano wyniki analizy uzyskane dzięki zastosowaniu modeli klasy ARCH i GARCH. Wpływ wyborów prezydenckich okazał się istotny statystycznie na poziomie 0,05, zaznaczał się w okresie 5 dni po wyborach i miał charakter ujemny. Wybory parlamentarne i samorządowe nie wywierały istotnego statystycznie wpływu na badane indeksy. Na kurs walutowy istotny statystycznie (na poziomie 0,05) wpływ miały wybory samorządowe. Wpływ na kurs USD/PLN był ujemny, tzn. wybory wpływały na umocnienie się złotówki w stosunku do dolara.

Suggested Citation

  • Marek Szymański & Grzegorz Wojtalik, 2022. "Wpływ wyborów politycznych na ceny akcji na Giełdzie Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 3, pages 290-306.
    • Handle: RePEc:aoq:ekonom:y:2022:i:3:p:290-306
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    wybory polityczne; giełda; modele GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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