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Government policy approval and exchange rates

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  • Liu, Yang
  • Shaliastovich, Ivan

Abstract

Measures of US government policy approval are strongly related to persistent fluctuations in the dollar value. Contemporaneous correlations between approval ratings and the dollar approach 50% against advanced economy currencies. High approval ratings further forecast a decline in the dollar risk premium several years ahead and are associated with a persistent increase in economic growth and a reduction in economic volatility. We provide an illustrative model to interpret our empirical evidence. In the model, policy valuations (approvals) are forward-looking and increase at times of high expected policy-related growth and low policy-related uncertainty, which are times of a strong dollar and low dollar risk premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Yang & Shaliastovich, Ivan, 2022. "Government policy approval and exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 303-331.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:143:y:2022:i:1:p:303-331
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.06.031
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    Cited by:

    1. Engel, Charles & Wu, Steve Pak Yeung, 2023. "Forecasting the U.S. Dollar in the 21st Century," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    2. Chen, Zilin & Da, Zhi & Huang, Dashan & Wang, Liyao, 2023. "Presidential economic approval rating and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 106-131.
    3. Gala, Vito D. & Pagliardi, Giovanni & Zenios, Stavros A., 2023. "Global political risk and international stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 78-102.
    4. Tarkom, Augustine & Yang, Lukai, 2024. "Presidential economic approval rating and trade credit," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Government policy; Risk premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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