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Politics and exchange rate forecasts

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  • Blomberg, S. Brock
  • Hess, Gregory D.

Abstract

Standard exchange rate models perform poorly in out-of-sample forecasting when compared to the random walk model. We posit part of the poor performance of these models may be due to omission of political factors. We test this hypothesis by including political variables that capture party-specific, election-specific and candidate-specific characteristics. Surprisingly, we find our political model outperforms the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting at one to twelve month horizons for the pound/dollar, mark/dollar, pound/mark and the trade-weighted dollar, mark, and pound exchange rates.
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Suggested Citation

  • Blomberg, S. Brock & Hess, Gregory D., 1997. "Politics and exchange rate forecasts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 189-205, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:43:y:1997:i:1-2:p:189-205
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    1. Blomberg, S-B & Hess, G-D, 1995. "The Exchange Rate Politics Puzzle," Papers 95-14, Wellesley College - Department of Economics.
    2. Chappell, Henry W, Jr, 1990. "Economic Performance, Voting, and Political Support: A Unified Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 313-320, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. S. Brock Blomberg, 2001. ""Dumb And Dumber" Explanations For Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 4, pages 187-216, November.
    2. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:39:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Blomberg, S. Brock & Hess, Gregory D., 2003. "Is the political business cycle for real?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(5-6), pages 1091-1121, May.
    4. Kauffman, Kyle & Weerapana, Akila, 2006. "The Impact of AIDS-Related News on Exchange Rates in South Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(2), pages 349-368, January.
    5. Ernesto H. Stein & Jeffry Frieden & Piero Ghezzi, 2000. "Politics and Exchange Rates: A Cross-Country Approach to Latin America," Research Department Publications 3119, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    6. Meon, Pierre-Guillaume, 2001. "A Model of Exchange Rate Crises with Partisan Governments," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 517-535, October.
    7. Fratzscher, Marcel & Stracca, Livio, 2009. "Does it pay to have the euro? Italy’s politics and financial markets under the lira and the euro," Working Paper Series 1064, European Central Bank.
    8. Daniel MITCHELL RESTREPO, 2006. "Forecasting the Colombian Exchange Rate: Capital Adjustments and Politics vs. Traditional IRP, Trade Adjustments and Random Walk Frameworks," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 011228, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
    9. Iljoong Kim & Inbae Kim, 2005. "Endogenous changes in the exchange rate regime: A bureaucratic incentive model," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 339-361, December.
    10. John R. Freeman & Jude C. Hays & Helmut Stix, 1999. "Democracy and Markets: The Case of Exchange Rates," Working Papers 39, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    11. Helge Berger & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob de Haan, 2000. "An Empirical Investigation into Exchange Rate Regime Choice and Exchange Rate Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 263, CESifo Group Munich.
    12. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
    13. Gregory D. Hess & Mark E. Schweitzer, 2000. "Does wage inflation cause price inflation?," Policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Apr.
    14. S. Brock Blomberg & Jeffry Frieden & Ernesto Stein, 2005. "Sustaining fixed rates: The political economy of currency pegs in Latin America," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 8, pages 203-225, November.
    15. Takao FUKUCHI & Suminori TOKUNAGA, 1999. "Simulation Analysis Of Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Case Of Indonesia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 37(1), pages 35-58, March.
    16. Mashkoor, Asim & Ahmed, Ovais & Herani, Dr. Gobin, 2015. "The relationship between Foreign Currency trading and Economic Development: A case Study of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 64482, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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