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Pricing Currency Risks

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  • Chernov, Mikhail
  • Dahlquist, Magnus
  • Lochstoer, Lars

Abstract

The currency market features a relatively small cross-section and conditional expected returns can be characterized by only a few signals – interest differentials, trend and mean-reversion. We exploit these properties to construct a conditional projection of the stochastic discount factor onto excess returns of individual currencies. Our approach is implementable in real time and prices all currencies and prominent strategies conditionally as well as unconditionally. We document that the fraction of unpriced risk in these assets is at least 85%. Extant explanations of carry strategies based on intermediary capital or global volatility are related to these unpriced components, while consumption growth is related to the priced component of returns.

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  • Chernov, Mikhail & Dahlquist, Magnus & Lochstoer, Lars, 2020. "Pricing Currency Risks," CEPR Discussion Papers 15571, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15571
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    Cited by:

    1. Hassan, Ramin & Loualiche, Erik & Pecora, Alexandre R. & Ward, Colin, 2023. "International trade and the risk in bilateral exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency risk premiums; Stochastic discount factor; Factor models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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