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Stochastic Discount Factor Bounds with Conditioning Information

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  • Wayne E. Ferson
  • Andrew F. Siegel

Abstract

Hansen and Jagannathan (1991) (hereafter HJ) derive restrictions on the volatility of stochastic discount factors that price a given set of returns. This article studies the sampling properties of HJ bounds that use conditioning information. One approach is to multiply the returns by the lagged variables. We also study optimized HJ bounds with conditioning information from Gallant, Hansen, and Tauchen (1990) and based on portfolios derived in Ferson and Siegel (2001). We document striking finite-sample biases in the HJ bounds, where the bounds reject asset-pricing models too often. We provide a useful bias correction. We also evaluate asymptotic standard errors for the bounds from Hansen, Heaton, and Luttmer (1995). Copyright 2003, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Wayne E. Ferson & Andrew F. Siegel, 2003. "Stochastic Discount Factor Bounds with Conditioning Information," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 567-595.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:16:y:2003:i:2:p:567-595
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhg004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti, 2016. "The Exact Distribution of the Hansen–Jagannathan Bound," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(7), pages 1915-1943, July.
    2. Devraj Basu & Roel Oomen & Alexander Stremme, 2010. "International Dynamic Asset Allocation and Return Predictability," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(7-8), pages 1008-1025.
    3. Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti, 2008. "The exact distribution of the Hansen-Jagannathan bound," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2008-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    4. Peñaranda, Francisco & Sentana, Enrique, 2016. "Duality in mean-variance frontiers with conditioning information," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 762-785.
    5. Driessen, Joost & Melenberg, Bertrand & Nijman, Theo, 2005. "Testing affine term structure models in case of transaction costs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 201-232, May.
    6. Jonathan Fletcher & Andrew Marshall, 2014. "Investor Heterogeneity and the Cross-section of U.K. Investment Trust Performance," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 67-89, February.
    7. Wayne E. Ferson & Jerchern Lin, 2013. "Alpha and Performance Measurement: The Effects of Investor Disagreement and Heterogeneity," NBER Working Papers 19349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Abhyankar, Abhay & Basu, Devraj & Stremme, Alexander, 2007. "Portfolio efficiency and discount factor bounds with conditioning information: An empirical study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 419-437, February.
    9. Xu, Yuewu & Yao, Xiangkun, 2019. "Extending the Hansen–Jagannathan distance measure of model misspecification," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 384-392.
    10. Wayne E. Ferson & Andrew F. Siegel, 2006. "Testing Portfolio Efficiency with Conditioning Information," NBER Working Papers 12098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Favero, Carlo A. & Ortu, Fulvio & Tamoni, Andrea & Yang, Haoxi, 2019. "Implications of return predictability for consumption dynamics and asset pricing," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90426, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Favero, Carlo A. & Ortu, Fulvio & Tamoni, Andrea & Yang, Haoxi, 2016. "Implications of Return Predictability across Horizons for Asset Pricing Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 11645, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Fletcher, Jonathan, 2019. "Model comparison tests of linear factor models in U.K. stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 281-291.
    14. Chrétien, Stéphane, 2012. "Bounds on the autocorrelation of admissible stochastic discount factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1943-1962.
    15. J. Sa‐Aadu & James Shilling & Ashish Tiwari, 2010. "On the Portfolio Properties of Real Estate in Good Times and Bad Times1," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 529-565, September.
    16. Galvani, Valentina & Gubellini, Stefano, 2013. "Mean–variance dominant trading strategies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 142-150.
    17. Devraj Basu & Alexander Stremme, 2006. "Asset Pricing Anomalies and Time-varying Betas: A New Specification Test for Conditional Factor Models," Working Papers wpn06-15, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
    18. Fletcher, Jonathan & Kihanda, Joseph, 2005. "An examination of alternative CAPM-based models in UK stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 2995-3014, December.
    19. Liu, Ludan, 2008. "It takes a model to beat a model: Volatility bounds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 80-110, January.
    20. Dong‐Hyun Ahn & H. Henry Cao & Stéphane Chrétien, 2009. "Portfolio Performance Measurement: a No Arbitrage Bounds Approach," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(2), pages 298-339, March.
    21. Wayne E. Ferson & Andrew F. Siegel & Pisun (Tracy) Xu, 2005. "Mimicking Portfolios with Conditioning Information," NBER Working Papers 11020, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models

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