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A Cross-Sectional Test of a Production-Based Asset Pricing Model

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  • John H. Cochrane

Abstract

This paper tests a factor pricing model for stock returns. The factors are returns on physical investment, inferred from investment data via a production function. The tests examine the model's ability to explain the variation in expected returns across assets and over time. The model is not rejected. It performs about as well as the CAPM and the Chen, Roll and Ross factor model, and it performs substantially better than a simple consumption-based model. In comparison tests, the investment return factors drive out all the other models. The paper also provides an easy technique for estimating and testing dynamic, conditional asset pricing models. All one has to do is include factors and returns scaled by instruments in an unconditional estimate. This procedure imposes none of the usual restrictions on conditional moments, and does not require prewhitened or orthogonalized factors.

Suggested Citation

  • John H. Cochrane, 1992. "A Cross-Sectional Test of a Production-Based Asset Pricing Model," NBER Working Papers 4025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4025
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Reffett, Kevin L., 1995. "Arbitrage pricing and the stochastic inflation tax in a multisector monetary economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 569-597, April.
    2. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    3. Hammouda, Amira & Saeed, Asif & Vidal, Marta & Vidal-García, Javier, 2023. "On the short-term persistence of mutual fund performance in Europe," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Caporin, Massimiliano & Lisi, Francesco, 2013. "A Conditional Single Index model with Local Covariates for detecting and evaluating active portfolio management," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 236-249.
    5. Wayne E. Ferson & Ravi Jagannathan, 1996. "Econometric evaluation of asset pricing models," Staff Report 206, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    6. repec:wyi:journl:002108 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. "The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
    8. Wayne E. Ferson & Andrew F. Siegel, 2006. "Testing Portfolio Efficiency with Conditioning Information," NBER Working Papers 12098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Bakshi, Gurdip S. & Chen, Zhiwu & Naka, Atsuyuki, 1995. "Production-based asset pricing in Japan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(2-3), pages 217-240, July.
    10. Couch, Robert & Wu, Wei, 2012. "Private investment and public equity returns," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 160-184.
    11. Wayne E. Ferson & Andrew F. Siegel, 2003. "Stochastic Discount Factor Bounds with Conditioning Information," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 567-595.
    12. Christopherson, Jon A & Ferson, Wayne E & Glassman, Debra A, 1998. "Conditioning Manager Alphas on Economic Information: Another Look at the Persistence of Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 111-142.
    13. Zhangpeng Gao & Shahidur Rahman, 2006. "A New Direction of Fund Rating Based on the Finite Normal Mixture Model," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 0603, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    14. Asada, Toichiro & Semmler, Willi, 1995. "Growth and finance: An intertemporal model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 623-649.
    15. Naranjo, Andy & Protopapadakis, Aris, 1997. "Financial market integration tests: an investigation using US equity markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 93-135, July.
    16. Hori, Keiichi, 1997. "Japanese stock returns and investment: A test of production-based asset pricing model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 37-56, March.
    17. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1997. "Assessing Specification Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 557-590, June.
    18. Zongwu Cai & Yongmiao Hong, 2013. "Some Recent Developments in Nonparametric Finance," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    19. Fletcher, Jonathan, 2014. "Benchmark models of expected returns in U.K. portfolio performance: An empirical investigation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 30-46.
    20. Luis Ferruz & Fernando Muñoz & Maria Vargas, 2010. "Does the size of a fund family matter when choosing an investment strategy? Evidence from spain," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 315-334, October.
    21. Avanidhar Subrahmanyam & Sheridan Titman, 2013. "Financial Market Shocks and the Macroeconomy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(11), pages 2687-2717.
    22. Heber Farnsworth & Wayne E. Ferson & David Jackson & Steven Todd, 2002. "Performance Evaluation with Stochastic Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 8791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Vidal-García, Javier, 2013. "The persistence of European mutual fund performance," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 45-67.
    24. Ferson, Wayne E & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1995. "Do Arbitrage Pricing Models Explain the Predictability of Stock Returns?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 309-349, July.

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