IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/qjecon/v131y2016i1p1-52..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Editor's Choice Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Emmanuel Farhi
  • Xavier Gabaix

Abstract

We propose a new model of exchange rates, based on the hypothesis that the possibility of rare but extreme disasters is an important determinant of risk premia in asset markets. The probability of world disasters as well as each country’s exposure to these events is time-varying. This creates joint fluctuations in exchange rates, interest rates, options, and stock markets. The model accounts for a series of major puzzles in exchange rates: excess volatility and exchange rate disconnect, forward premium puzzle and large excess returns of the carry trade, and comovements between stocks and exchange rates. It also makes empirically successful signature predictions regarding the link between exchange rates and telltale signs of disaster risk in currency options. JEL Codes: G12, G15.

Suggested Citation

  • Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, 2016. "Editor's Choice Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(1), pages 1-52.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:131:y:2016:i:1:p:1-52.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/qje/qjv040
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Damir Filipovic & Martin Larsson & Anders B. Trolle, 2018. "On the Relation Between Linearity-Generating Processes and Linear-Rational Models," Papers 1806.03153, arXiv.org.
    2. Byrne, Joseph P & Ibrahim, Boulis Maher & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2017. "The Time-Varying Risk Price of Currency Carry Trades," MPRA Paper 80788, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Michael Curran & Adnan Velic, 2016. "Real Exchange Rate Persistence and Country Characteristics," Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series 31, Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics.
    4. repec:eee:dyncon:v:80:y:2017:i:c:p:1-16 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Foroni, Claudia & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Sadaba, Barbara, 2018. "Assessing the predictive ability of sovereign default risk on exchange rate returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 242-264.
    6. Lewis, Karen K. & Liu, Edith X., 2017. "Disaster risk and asset returns: An international perspective," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 42-58.
    7. Cheolbeom Park & Suyeon Park, 2018. "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation of South Korean Exchange Rates under Tension between the Two Koreas," Working Papers 2018-8, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    8. Kremens, Lukas & Martin, Ian, 2017. "The Quanto Theory of Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 11970, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Dramane Coulibaly & Hubert Kempf, 2017. "Inflation Targeting and the Forward Bias Puzzle in Emerging Countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2017-12, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    10. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2017. "Microeconomic Origins of Macroeconomic Tail Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 54-108, January.
    11. repec:bis:bisbps:95 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:eee:empfin:v:47:y:2018:i:c:p:162-189 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:eee:intfin:v:52:y:2018:i:c:p:37-47 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Roberto Marfè & Julien Penasse, 2016. "The Time-Varying Risk of Macroeconomic Disasters," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 463, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    15. Koetter, Michael & Noth, Felix & Rehbein, Oliver, 2016. "Borrowers under water! Rare disasters, regional banks, and recovery lending," IWH Discussion Papers 31/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    16. repec:eee:jfinec:v:124:y:2017:i:2:p:415-440 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Rangan Gupta & Tahir Suleman & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "The Role of Time-Varying Rare Disaster Risks in Predicting Bond Returns and Volatility," Working Papers 201770, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    18. Kuk Mo Jung, 2017. "Liquidity Risk And Time-Varying Correlation Between Equity And Currency Returns," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(2), pages 898-919, April.
    19. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    20. Byrne, Joseph P. & Ibrahim, Boulis Maher & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2018. "Common information in carry trade risk factors," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 37-47.
    21. Ready, Robert & Roussanov, Nikolai & Ward, Colin, 2017. "After the tide: Commodity currencies and global trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 69-86.
    22. repec:eee:jfinec:v:127:y:2018:i:2:p:197-225 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Rangan Gupta & Tahir Suleman & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility: The Role of Time-Varying Rare Disaster Risks," Working Papers 201767, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
    1. Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates (QJE 2016) in ReplicationWiki

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:131:y:2016:i:1:p:1-52.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.