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The Share of Systematic Variation in Bilateral Exchange Rates


  • Adrien Verdelhan

    (MIT Sloan)


Changes in exchange rates are not random. Two economically motivated factors account for 20% to 90% of the daily, monthly, quarterly, and annual exchange rate movements in developed countries and in emerging and developing countries with floating exchange rates. The different shares of systematic variation across currencies are related to financial and macroeconomic measures of world integration. Across countries, the more integrated the equity and bond markets, the higher the share of systematic currency variation. These results have direct implications for asset managers, motivate further work on exchange rates, and offer new insights into international economics and finance models.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrien Verdelhan, 2012. "The Share of Systematic Variation in Bilateral Exchange Rates," 2012 Meeting Papers 763, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed012:763

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    Cited by:

    1. Antonia Diaz & Luis A. Puch, 2016. "Investment, Technological Progress and Energy Efficiency," Working Papers 909, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    2. Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2015. "Tests for the validity of portfolio or group choice in financial and panel regressions," Economics Working Papers 1523, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    3. Grobys, Klaus & Heinonen, Jari-Pekka, 2016. "Is there a credit risk anomaly in FX markets?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-6.

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