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Foreign currency returns and systematic risks

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  • Victoria Galsband
  • Thomas Nitschka

Abstract

The decomposition of the market return into its cash-flow and discount-rate news driven components reveals that excess returns on low forward discount currency portfolios load positively on "good" news about the stock market's discount rates while high forward discount currencies load negatively on this news. Average currency portfolio returns are hence explained by different sensitivities to discount-rate news. A two-beta version of the CAPM, distinguishing between cash-flow and discount-rate betas, is able to price both currency and stock portfolio returns at the same time. Finally, we find that the relation between stock market news and foreign currency returns varies across the two either discount-rate news or both discount-rate and cash-flow news driven stock market booms of the past two decades.

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  • Victoria Galsband & Thomas Nitschka, 2011. "Foreign currency returns and systematic risks," Working Papers 2011-03, Swiss National Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2011-03
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    Cited by:

    1. Atanasov, Victoria & Nitschka, Thomas, 2014. "Currency excess returns and global downside market risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 268-285.
    2. Ballotta, Laura & Deelstra, Griselda & Rayée, Grégory, 2017. "Multivariate FX models with jumps: Triangles, Quantos and implied correlation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 260(3), pages 1181-1199.
    3. Thomas Nitschka, 2014. "The Good? The Bad? The Ugly? Which news drive (co)variation in Swiss and US bond and stock excess returns?," Working Papers 2014-01, Swiss National Bank.
    4. Thomas Nitschka, 2014. "What News Drive Variation in Swiss and US Bond and Stock Excess Returns?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 150(II), pages 89-118, June.
    5. Adrien Verdelhan, 2012. "The Share of Systematic Variation in Bilateral Exchange Rates," 2012 Meeting Papers 763, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Byrne, Joseph P & Ibrahim, Boulis Maher & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2017. "Carry Trades and Commodity Risk Factors," MPRA Paper 80789, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Laura Ballota & Griselda Deelstra & Grégory Rayée, 2015. "Quanto Implied Correlation in a Multi-Lévy Framework," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-36, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency returns; cash-flow news; discount-rate news; market return; UIP;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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