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Currency excess returns and global downside market risk

Listed author(s):
  • Atanasov, Victoria
  • Nitschka, Thomas

We assess cross-sectional differences in 23 bilateral currency excess returns in an empirical model that distinguishes between US-specific and global risks, conditional on US bull (upside) or bear (downside) markets. Using the US dollar as numeraire currency, our results suggest that global downside risk is compensated in conditional and unconditional, bilateral currency excess returns. This finding is mostly driven by the emerging markets' currencies in our sample. We also find that the link between the global downside risk and risks associated with a typical carry trade strategy is much weaker for emerging markets' currencies than for developed markets' currencies.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560614001120
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 47 (2014)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 268-285

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:47:y:2014:i:c:p:268-285
DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.06.006
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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