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Investing in Foreign Currency is like Betting on your Intertemporal Marginal Rate of Substitution

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  • Hanno Lustig
  • Adrien Verdelhan

Abstract

Investors earn positive excess returns on high interest rate foreign discount bonds, because these currencies appreciate on average. Lustig and Verdelhan (2005) show that investing in high interest rate foreign discount bonds exposes them to more aggregate consumption risk, while low interest rate foreign bonds provide a hedge. This paper provides a simple model that replicates these facts. Investing in foreign currency is like betting on the difference between your own intertemporal marginal rate of substitution (IMRS) and your neighbor's IMRS. These bets are very risky if your neighbor's IMRS is not correlated with yours, but they provide a hedge when his IMRS is highly correlated and more volatile. If the foreign neighbors that face low interest rates also have more volatile and correlated IMRS, that accounts for the spread in excess returns in the data. (JEL: F31, G12) (c) 2006 by the European Economic Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2006. "Investing in Foreign Currency is like Betting on your Intertemporal Marginal Rate of Substitution," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 644-655, 04-05.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:jeurec:v:4:y:2006:i:2-3:p:644-655
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    Cited by:

    1. Juliana Salomao & Liliana Varela, 2022. "Exchange Rate Exposure and Firm Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 481-514.
    2. Burnside, Craig & Cerrato, Mario & Zhang, Zhekai, 2025. "Foreign Exchange Order Flow as a Risk Factor," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(5), pages 2555-2582, August.
    3. A Craig Burnside & Jeremy J Graveline, 2020. "On the Asset Market View of Exchange Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 239-260.
    4. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2009. "Comment on "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 361-384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Matos, Paulo Rogério Faustino & Costa, Carlos Eugênio da & Issler, João Victor, 2007. "The forward- and the equity-premium puzzles: two symptoms of the same illness?," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 649, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    6. Atanasov, Victoria & Nitschka, Thomas, 2014. "Currency excess returns and global downside market risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 268-285.
    7. Costa, Carlos Eugênio da & Issler, João Victor & Matos, Paulo Rogério Faustino, 2013. "The forward and the equity-premium puzzles: a straightforward test of whether they are two symptoms of the same illness," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 738, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    8. Grisse, Christian & Nitschka, Thomas, 2015. "On financial risk and the safe haven characteristics of Swiss franc exchange rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 153-164.
    9. da Costa, Carlos E. & Issler, João V. & Matos, Paulo F., 2015. "A Note On The Forward And The Equity Premium Puzzles: Two Symptoms Of The Same Illness?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 446-464, March.
    10. Mohammadreza Tavakoli Baghdadabad & Girijasankar Mallik, 2021. "Market news co-moments and currency returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1819-1863, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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