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Exchange Rate Exposure and Firm Dynamics
[Credit Constraints and the Cyclicality of R&D Investment: Evidence from France]

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  • Juliana Salomao
  • Liliana Varela

Abstract

This article develops a heterogeneous firm-dynamics model to jointly study firms’ currency debt composition and investment choices. In our model, foreign currency borrowing arises from a dynamic trade-off between exposure to currency risk and growth. The model endogenously generates selection of productive firms into foreign currency borrowing. Among them, firms with high marginal product of capital use foreign loans more intensively. We assess econometrically the model’s predicted pattern of foreign currency borrowing using firm-level census data from the deregulation of these loans in Hungary, calibrate the model, and quantify the aggregate impact of this financing. Our counterfactual exercises show that understanding the characteristics of firms borrowing in foreign currency is critical to assess the aggregate consequences of this financing.

Suggested Citation

  • Juliana Salomao & Liliana Varela, 2022. "Exchange Rate Exposure and Firm Dynamics [Credit Constraints and the Cyclicality of R&D Investment: Evidence from France]," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 89(1), pages 481-514.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:89:y:2022:i:1:p:481-514.
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    4. Bernabe Lopez‐Martin, 2022. "Firm Export Dynamics And The Exchange Rate: A Quantitative Exploration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1137-1163, August.
    5. Bryan Hardy, 2018. "Foreign currency borrowing, balance sheet shocks and real outcomes," BIS Working Papers 758, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Chen, Su & Yin, Lu, 2022. "Why do firms issue U.S. dollar bond abroad? Evidence from Chinese non-financial listed corporations," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    7. Malamud, Semyon & Eren, Egemen, 2018. "Dominant Currency Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 13391, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Ahnert, Toni & Forbes, Kristin & Friedrich, Christian & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2021. "Macroprudential FX regulations: Shifting the snowbanks of FX vulnerability?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 145-174.
    9. Varela, Liliana & Alfaro, Laura & Calani, Mauricio, 2021. "Granular Corporate Hedging Under Dominant Currency," CEPR Discussion Papers 16232, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Boermans, Martijn A. & Burger, John D., 2023. "Fickle emerging market flows, stable euros, and the dollar risk factor," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    11. Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Taylor, Mark P. & Wang, Zigan & Xu, Qi, 2022. "Currency volatility and global technological innovation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    12. Florez-Orrego, Sergio & Maggiori, Matteo & Schreger, Jesse & Sun, Ziwen & Tinda, Serdil, 2023. "Global Capital Allocation," SocArXiv 5s6n3, Center for Open Science.
    13. Delis, Manthos D. & Politsidis, Panagiotis N. & Sarno, Lucio, 2022. "The cost of foreign-currency lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    14. Sérgio Leão & Rafael Schiozer & Raquel F. Oliveira & Gustavo Araujo, 2022. "Lending Relationships and Currency Hedging," Working Papers Series 565, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    15. Felipe Benguria & Felipe Saffie & Sergio Urzúa, 2018. "The Transmission of Commodity Price Super-Cycles," NBER Working Papers 24560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, 2019. "U.S. Monetary Policy and International Risk Spillovers," NBER Working Papers 26297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Rodnyansky, A., 2018. "(Un)Competitive Devaluations and Firm Dynamics," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1888, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    18. Bryan Hardy & Felipe Saffie, 2019. "From carry trades to trade credit: financial intermediation by non-financial corporations," BIS Working Papers 773, Bank for International Settlements.
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    22. Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem, 2019. "US Monetary Policy and International Risk Spillovers," CEPR Discussion Papers 14053, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Firm dynamics; Foreign currency debt; Currency mismatch; Uncovered interest rate parity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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