The forward- and the equity-premium puzzles: two symptoms of the same illness?
We build a pricing kernel using only US domestic assets data and check whether it accounts for foreign markets stylized facts that escape consumption based models. By interpreting our stochastic discount factor as the projection of a pricing kernel from a fully specified model in the space of returns, our results indicate that a model that accounts for the behavior of domestic assets goes a long way toward accounting for the behavior of foreign assets. We address predictability issues associated with the forward premium puzzle by: i) using instruments that are known to forecast excess returns in the moments restrictions associated with Euler equations, and; ii) by pricing Lustig and Verdelhan (2007)'s foreign currency portfolios. Our results indicate that the relevant state variables that explain foreign-currency market asset prices are also the driving forces behind U.S. domestic assets behavior.
|Date of creation:||12 Aug 2009|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Praia de Botafogo 190, sala 1100, Rio de Janeiro/RJ - CEP: 22253-900|
Web page: http://epge.fgv.br
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010.
"The equity premium: a puzzle,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
1401, David K. Levine.
- David K. Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris I. Telmer, 1995.
"Interpreting the Forward Premium Anomaly,"
Canadian Journal of Economics,
Canadian Economics Association, vol. 28(s1), pages 108-119, November.
- Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2005.
"Investing in Foreign Currency is like Betting on your Intertemporal Marginal Rate of Substitution,"
Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series
WP2005-040, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2006. "Investing in Foreign Currency is like Betting on your Intertemporal Marginal Rate of Substitution," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 644-655, 04-05.
- Charles Engel, 1995.
"The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
- Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2000. "Coincident and leading indicators of the stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 87-111, May.
- Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1986. "Performance measurement with the arbitrage pricing theory : A new framework for analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 373-394, March.
- Korajczyk, Robert A. & Viallet, Claude J., 1992. "Equity risk premia and the pricing of foreign exchange risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 199-219, November.
- Jushan Bai, 2009. "Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(4), pages 1229-1279, 07.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:697. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Núcleo de Computação da EPGE)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.