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Conditional Dynamics and the Multihorizon Risk-Return Trade-Off

Author

Listed:
  • Mikhail Chernov
  • Lars A Lochstoer
  • Stig R H Lundeby

Abstract

We propose testing asset pricing models using multihorizon returns (MHRs). MHRs effectively generate a new set of test assets that is endogenous to the model and that identifies a broad set of possible conditional misspecifications. We apply MHR-based testing to prominent linear factor models and show that these models typically do a poor job of pricing longer-horizon returns, with pricing errors that are similar in magnitude to the risk premiums they were designed to explain. We trace the errors to the conditional factor dynamics. Explicitly incorporating factor timing into the models often makes mispricing worse, thereby posing a challenge for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikhail Chernov & Lars A Lochstoer & Stig R H Lundeby, 2022. "Conditional Dynamics and the Multihorizon Risk-Return Trade-Off," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 1310-1347.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:35:y:2022:i:3:p:1310-1347.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhab053
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    Cited by:

    1. Bryzgalova, Svetlana & Huang, Jiantao & Julliard, Christian, 2023. "Bayesian solutions for the factor zoo: we just ran two quadrillion models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 126151, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Baba-Yara, Fahiz & Boons, Martijn & Tamoni, Andrea, 2024. "Persistent and transitory components of firm characteristics: Implications for asset pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    3. Brennan, M.J. & Taylor, Alex P., 2023. "Expected returns and risk in the stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 276-300.
    4. Valentin Haddad & Serhiy Kozak & Shrihari Santosh & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2020. "Factor Timing," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 1980-2018.
    5. Mikhail Chernov & Magnus Dahlquist & Lars Lochstoer, 2023. "Pricing Currency Risks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 693-730, April.
    6. van Binsbergen, Jules H. & Boons, Martijn & Opp, Christian C. & Tamoni, Andrea, 2023. "Dynamic asset (mis)pricing: Build-up versus resolution anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 406-431.
    7. Favero, Carlo A. & Melone, Alessandro, 2020. "Asset Pricing vs Asset Expected Returning in Factor-Portfolio Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 14417, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Angelidis, Timotheos & Tessaromatis, Nikolaos, 2023. "The disappearing profitability of volatility-managed equity factors," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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