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Exchange rates and monetary policy uncertainty

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  • Mueller, Philippe
  • Tahbaz-Salehi, Alireza
  • Vedolin, Andrea

Abstract

We document that a trading strategy that is short the U.S. dollar and long other currencies exhibits significantly larger excess returns on days with scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements. We show that these excess returns (i) are higher for currencies with higher interest rate differentials vis-à-vis the United States, (ii) increase with uncertainty about monetary policy, and (iii) increase further when the Federal Reserve adopts a policy of monetary easing. We interpret these excess returns as compensation for monetary policy uncertainty within a parsimonious model of constrained financiers who intermediate global demand for currencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Mueller, Philippe & Tahbaz-Salehi, Alireza & Vedolin, Andrea, 2017. "Exchange rates and monetary policy uncertainty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 77256, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:77256
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Özmen, M. Utku & Yılmaz, Erdal, 2017. "Co-movement of exchange rates with interest rate differential, risk premium and FED policy in “fragile economies”," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 173-188.
    2. Ender Demir & Giray Gozgor & Rangan Gupta & Huseyin Kaya, 2018. "Effects of Geopolitical Risks on Trade Flows: Evidence from the Gravity Model," Working Papers 201835, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "The impact of uncertainty on professional exchange rate forecasts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 296-316.
    4. Hassan, Tarek & Hollander, Stephan & Tahoun, Ahmed & van Lent, Laurence, 2017. "Firm-level political risk: Measurement and effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 12436, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Borisenko, Dmitry & Pozdeev, Igor, 2017. "Monetary Policy and Currency Returns: the Foresight Saga," Working Papers on Finance 1708, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised 1710.
    6. Ferrara, L. & Istrefi, K., 2016. "Impact des chocs d’incertitude sur l’économie mondiale – Synthèse de conférence," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 206, pages 61-68.

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    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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