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The Effect of Macroeconomic News on Beliefs and Preferences: Evidence from the Options Market

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  • Alessandro Beber
  • Michael W. Brandt

Abstract

We examine the effect of regularly scheduled macroeconomic announcements on the beliefs and preferences of participants in the U.S. Treasury market by comparing the option-implied state-price density (SPD) of bond prices shortly before and after the announcements. We find that the announcements reduce the uncertainty implicit in the second moment of the SPD regardless of the content of the news. The changes in the higher-order moments, in contrast, depend on whether the news is good or bad for economic prospects. Using a standard model for interest rates to disentangle changes in beliefs and changes in preferences, we demonstrate that our results are consistent with time-varying risk aversion in the spirit of habit formation.

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  • Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt, 2003. "The Effect of Macroeconomic News on Beliefs and Preferences: Evidence from the Options Market," NBER Working Papers 9914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9914
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    Cited by:

    1. R. López & E. Navarro, 2013. "Interest rate and stock return volatility indices for the Eurozone. Investors' gauges of fear during the recent financial crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(18), pages 1419-1432, September.
    2. Mo, Henry & Wu, Liuren, 2007. "International capital asset pricing: Evidence from options," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 465-498, September.
    3. López, Raquel, 2015. "Do stylized facts of equity-based volatility indices apply to fixed-income volatility indices? Evidence from the US Treasury market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 292-303.
    4. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Rong, Wu & Spyrou, Spyros I., 2015. "Herding on fundamental information: A comparative study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 589-598.
    5. Vahamaa, Sami, 2005. "Option-implied asymmetries in bond market expectations around monetary policy actions of the ECB," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 23-38.
    6. Carvalho, Augusto & Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2018. "State-controlled companies and political risk: Evidence from the 2014 Brazilian election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 66-78.
    7. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt, 2009. "Resolving Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Stock and Bond Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 13(1), pages 1-45.
    8. Hutchison, Michael & Sushko, Vladyslav, 2013. "Impact of macro-economic surprises on carry trade activity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1133-1147.
    9. repec:wly:jfutmk:v:37:y:2017:i:1:p:71-89 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Jukka Sihvonen & Sami Vähämaa, 2014. "Forward‐Looking Monetary Policy Rules and Option‐Implied Interest Rate Expectations," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 346-373, April.
    11. Lai, Ya-Wen, 2017. "Macroeconomic factors and index option returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 452-477.
    12. Vu Tran & Rasha Alsakka & Owain ap Gwilym, 2018. "Multiple credit ratings and market heterogeneity," Working Papers 2018-26, Swansea University, School of Management.
    13. Sinha, Arunima, 2016. "Monetary policy uncertainty and investor expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 188-199.
    14. Bryan Kelly & Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2016. "The Price of Political Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from the Option Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(5), pages 2417-2480, October.
    15. Bakshi, Gurdip & Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2008. "Stochastic risk premiums, stochastic skewness in currency options, and stochastic discount factors in international economies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 132-156, January.
    16. Bernales, Alejandro & Guidolin, Massimo, 2014. "Can we forecast the implied volatility surface dynamics of equity options? Predictability and economic value tests," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 326-342.
    17. Vähämaa, Sami, 2004. "Option-implied asymmetries in bond market expectations around monetary policy actions of the ECB," Working Paper Series 315, European Central Bank.
    18. Bernales, Alejandro & Guidolin, Massimo, 2015. "Learning to smile: Can rational learning explain predictable dynamics in the implied volatility surface?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-37.
    19. Anders B. Trolle & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2010. "An Empirical Analysis of the Swaption Cube," NBER Working Papers 16549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Bakshi, Gurdip & Panayotov, George & Skoulakis, Georgios, 2011. "Improving the predictability of real economic activity and asset returns with forward variances inferred from option portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 475-495, June.
    21. Vrugt, Evert B., 2009. "U.S. and Japanese macroeconomic news and stock market volatility in Asia-Pacific," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 611-627, November.
    22. Tran, Vu & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2014. "Sovereign rating actions and the implied volatility of stock index options," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 101-113.
    23. Haitao Li & Feng Zhao, 2009. "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Interest Rate Cap Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4335-4376, November.
    24. Aramonte, Sirio, 2014. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and the cross-section of option returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 25-49.

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    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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