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Implied Binomial Trees

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  • Rubinstein, Mark

Abstract

This article develops a new method for inferring risk-neutral probabilities (or state-contingent prices) from the simultaneously observed prices of European options. These probabilities are then used to infer a unique fully specified recombining binomial tree that is consistent with these probabilities (and, hence, consistent with all the observed option prices). A simple backwards recursive procedure solves for the entire tree. From the standpoint of the standard binomial option pricing model, which implies a limiting risk-neutral lognormal distribution for the underlying asset, the approach here provides the natural (and probably the simplest) way to generalize to arbitrary ending risk-neutral probability distributions. Copyright 1994 by American Finance Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Rubinstein, Mark, 1994. " Implied Binomial Trees," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 771-818, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:49:y:1994:i:3:p:771-818
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    1. Brennan, Michael J & Hughes, Patricia J, 1991. " Stock Prices and the Supply of Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1665-1691, December.
    2. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    3. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    4. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1990. "Equilibrium Short Horizons of Investors and Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 148-153, May.
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