Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns
A relationship exists between aggregate risk-neutral and subjective probability distributions and risk aversion functions. Using a variation of the method developed by Jackwerth and Rubinstein (1996), we estimate risk-neutral probabilities reliably from option prices. Subjective probabilities are estimated from realized returns. This paper then introduces a technique to empirically derive risk aversion functions implied by option prices and realized returns simultaneously. These risk aversion functions dramatically change shapes around the 1987 crash: Precrash, they are positive and decreasing in wealth and thus consistent with standard economic theory. Postcrash, they are partially negative and increasing and irreconcilable with the theory. Overpricing of out-of-the-money puts is the most likely cause. A simulated trading strategy exploiting this overpricing shows excess returns even after accounting for the possibility of further crashes and transaction costs.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
|Date of creation:||01 Sep 1996|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA USA|
Web page: http://haas.berkeley.edu/finance/WP/rpflist.html
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: IBER, F502 Haas Building, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley CA 94720-1922|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Melick, William R. & Thomas, Charles P., 1997. "Recovering an Asset's Implied PDF from Option Prices: An Application to Crude Oil during the Gulf Crisis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(01), pages 91-115, March.
- Banz, Rolf W & Miller, Merton H, 1978. "Prices for State-contingent Claims: Some Estimates and Applications," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 653-72, October.
- Jens Carsten Jackwerth., 1996. "Implied Binomial Trees: Generalizations and Empirical Tests," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-262, University of California at Berkeley.
- Joshua V. Rosenberg & Robert F. Engle, 1997. "Option Hedging Using Empirical Pricing Kernels," NBER Working Papers 6222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hayne E. Leland., 1979.
"Who Should Buy Portfolio Insurance?,"
Research Program in Finance Working Papers
95, University of California at Berkeley.
- Hayne E. Leland., 1996. "Beyond Mean-Variance: Performance Measurement of Portfolios Using Options or Dynamic Strategies," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-263-rev, University of California at Berkeley.
- Rubinstein, Mark E, 1973. "A Comparative Statics Analysis of Risk Premiums," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(4), pages 605-15, October.
- Robert C. Merton, 1980.
"On Estimating the Expected Return on the Market: An Exploratory Investigation,"
NBER Working Papers
0444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Merton, Robert C., 1980. "On estimating the expected return on the market : An exploratory investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 323-361, December.
- Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. " Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-32, December.
- Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, .
"Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices,"
CRSP working papers
332, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 1998. "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 499-547, 04.
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 1995. "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 5351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark Rubinstein, 1976. "The Valuation of Uncertain Income Streams and the Pricing of Options," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 407-425, Autumn.
- Stephen A. Ross, 1976. "Options and Efficiency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 90(1), pages 75-89.
- Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-51, October.
- Constantinides, George M, 1982. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers and without Demand Aggregation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 253-67, April.
- Brennan, M.J. & Solanki, R., 1981. "Optimal Portfolio Insurance," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(03), pages 279-300, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucb:calbrf:rpf-265. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.