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The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates

In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2018

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  • Atsushi Inoue
  • Barbara Rossi

Abstract

What are the effects of monetary policy on exchange rates? And have unconventional monetary policies changed the way monetary policy is transmitted to international financial markets? According to conventional wisdom, expansionary monetary policy shocks in a country lead to that country's currency depreciation. We revisit the conventional wisdom during both conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks as changes int he whole yield curve due to unanticipated monetary policy moves and allows monetary policy shocks to differ depending on how they affect agents' expectations about the future path of interest rates as well as their perceived effects on the riskiness/uncertainty in the economy. Our empirical results show that: (i) a monetary policy easing leads to a depreciation of the country's spot nominal exchange rate in both conventional and unconventional periods; (ii) however, there is substancial heterogeneity in monetary policy shocks over time and their effects depend on the way they affect agents'expectations; (iii) we find favorable evidence to Dornbusch's (1976) overshooting hypothesis; (iv) changes in expected real interest rates play an important role in the transmission of monetary policy shocks.
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  • Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2018. "The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2018, pages 419-447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:14112
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    Cited by:

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    2. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2018. "Unconventional U.S. Monetary Policy: New Tools, Same Channels?," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(4), pages 1-31, October.
    3. Dalhaus, Tatjana & Schaumburg, Julia & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2021. "Networking the yield curve: implications for monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2532, European Central Bank.
    4. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Dedola, Luca & Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek & Stracca, Livio & Strasser, Georg, 2020. "Monetary policy and its transmission in a globalised world," Working Paper Series 2407, European Central Bank.
    5. Chunya Bu & John Rogers & Wenbin Wu, 2019. "A Unified Measure of Fed Monetary Policy Shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-043, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Brubakk, Leif & ter Ellen, Saskia & Robstad, Ørjan & Xu, Hong, 2019. "The macroeconomic effects of forward communication," Working Paper 2019/20, Norges Bank.
    7. Rüth, Sebastian K., 2020. "Shifts in monetary policy and exchange rate dynamics: Is Dornbusch's overshooting hypothesis intact, after all?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    8. Feldkircher, Martin & Gruber, Thomas & Huber, Florian, 2020. "International effects of a compression of euro area yield curves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    9. Bhattarai, Saroj & Chatterjee, Arpita & Park, Woong Yong, 2021. "Effects of US quantitative easing on emerging market economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    10. Daniel J. Lewis, 2019. "Announcement-Specific Decompositions of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and Their Macroeconomic Effects," Staff Reports 891, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    11. Kortela, Tomi & Nelimarkka, Jaakko, 2020. "The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy : identification through the yield curve," Research Discussion Papers 3/2020, Bank of Finland.
    12. Teti̇k, Metin, 2020. "Testing of leader-follower interaction between fed and emerging countries’ central banks," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    13. Gábor Dávid Kiss & Mercédesz Mészáros, 2020. "Gravity Among Central Bank Balance Sheets: Monetary Policy Spill-Over on FX Volatility," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 5(1), pages 33-57, June.
    14. Eo, Yunjong & Kang, Kyu Ho, 2020. "The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on forecasting the yield curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    15. Thi Bich Ngoc Tran & Hoang Cam Huong Pham, 2020. "The Spillover Effects of the US Unconventional Monetary Policy: New Evidence from Asian Developing Countries," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(8), pages 1-26, July.
    16. Zoë Venter, 2020. "The Interaction Between Conventional Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Chile, Colombia, Japan, Portugal and the UK," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(3), pages 521-554, September.
    17. Ortega, Eva & Osbat, Chiara, 2020. "Exchange rate pass-through in the euro area and EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 241, European Central Bank.
    18. Ryuzo Miyao & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2020. "Regime shifts in the effects of Japan’s unconventional monetary policies," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(6), pages 749-772, December.
    19. Stavrakeva, Vania & Tang, Jenny, 2019. "The Dollar During the Great Recession: US Monetary Policy Signaling and The Flight To Safety," CEPR Discussion Papers 14034, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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