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Macroeconomic news and treasury futures return volatility: Do treasury auctions matter?

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  • Smales, L.A.

Abstract

Various macroeconomic announcements are known to influence asset price volatility. In addition to non-farm payrolls, we highlight the importance of Treasury auctions – a news event that has grown in importance due to ongoing Federal deficits. The occurrence of an auction, which increases supply in the underlying cash market, pushes futures prices lower and volatility higher. Conversely, a higher bid-to-cover ratio, indicates greater demand for Treasury securities, increases Treasury futures prices and lowers volatility. The response is consistent with market participants using futures to manage inventory risk. The results are consistent across a set of volatility estimates, and in an alternate conditional volatility framework.

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  • Smales, L.A., 2021. "Macroeconomic news and treasury futures return volatility: Do treasury auctions matter?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:48:y:2021:i:c:s1044028320301162
    DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2020.100537
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic news; Treasury auctions; Futures markets; Volatility; Market efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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