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Stock prices, firm size, and changes in the federal funds rate target

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  • Hui Guo

Abstract

The Fed targeted the federal funds rate during the period 1974-79; they returned to that procedure in the late 1980s and have maintained it since then. For both periods, we find that stock prices reacted significantly to unanticipated changes in the federal funds rate target, but not to anticipated ones. Consistent with the prediction of imperfect capital market theories, the estimated impact of monetary shocks is significantly larger for small stocks than for big stocks in the late 1970s, when business conditions were typically bad. However, the "size effect" is not present in the 1990s, when business conditions were typically good. We document a similar pattern using portfolios formed according to the book-to-market value ratio. Our evidence of the state-dependent monetary effect provides support for recent rationales about the anomalous size and value premiums.

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  • Hui Guo, 2003. "Stock prices, firm size, and changes in the federal funds rate target," Working Papers 2002-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2002-004
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    Cited by:

    1. Paulo Maio, 2014. "Another Look at the Stock Return Response to Monetary Policy Actions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 321-371.
    2. Haiyan Yin & Jiawen Yang & William C. Handorf, 2010. "State Dependency Of Bank Stock Reaction To Federal Funds Rate Target Changes," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 33(3), pages 289-315.
    3. Alexandros Kontonikas & Alexandros Kostakis, 2013. "On Monetary Policy and Stock Market Anomalies," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(7-8), pages 1009-1042, September.
    4. Dunbar, Kwamie & Amin, Abu S., 2012. "Credit risk dynamics in response to changes in the federal funds target: The implication for firm short-term debt," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 141-152.
    5. Tsai, Chun-Li, 2013. "The high-frequency asymmetric response of stock returns to monetary policy for high oil price events," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 166-176.
    6. repec:ids:ijsuse:v:10:y:2018:i:3:p:205-225 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Tsai, Chun-Li, 2014. "The effects of monetary policy on stock returns: Financing constraints and “informative” and “uninformative” FOMC statements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 273-290.
    8. Chris Florackis & Alexandros Kontonikas & Alexandros Kostakis, 2010. "Transmission of macro-liquidity shocks to liquidity-sorted stock portfolios’ returns: The role of the financial crisis," Working Papers 2011_22, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Apr 2011.
    9. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2013. "Monetary policy and stock market dynamics across monetary regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 381-406.
    10. Jansen, Dennis W. & Tsai, Chun-Li, 2010. "Monetary policy and stock returns: Financing constraints and asymmetries in bull and bear markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 981-990, December.
    11. Haiyan Yin & Yang, 2013. "Bank characteristics and stock reactions to federal funds rate target changes," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(23), pages 1755-1764, December.
    12. Phiri, Andrew, 2017. "Has the South African Reserve Bank responded to equity prices since the sub-prime crisis? An asymmetric convergence approach," MPRA Paper 76542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Papadamou, Stephanos & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2014. "Interest rate risk and the creation of the Monetary Policy Committee: Evidence from banks’ and life insurance companies’ stocks in the UK," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 45-67.
    14. Acuña, Andres A. & Pinto, Cristian F., 2012. "Respuesta del retorno accionario a la politica monetaria: Evidencia para el mercado chileno
      [Stock return response to monetary policy: Evidence from the Chilean market]
      ," MPRA Paper 41091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Chuliá, Helena & Martens, Martin & Dijk, Dick van, 2010. "Asymmetric effects of federal funds target rate changes on S&P100 stock returns, volatilities and correlations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 834-839, April.
    16. Tsai, Chun-Li, 2011. "The reaction of stock returns to unexpected increases in the federal funds rate target," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 121-138.
    17. Cenesizoglu, Tolga, 2011. "Size, book-to-market ratio and macroeconomic news," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 248-270, March.
    18. Tsai, Chun-Li, 2011. "The reaction of stock returns to unexpected increases in the federal funds rate target," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 121-138, March.
    19. Florackis, Chris & Kostakis, Alexandros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2011. "Transmission of macro-liquidity shocks to liquidity-sorted stock portfolios’ returns: The role of the financial crisis," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-31, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    20. Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Has the South African Reserve Bank responded to equity returns since the sub-prime crisis? An asymmetric convergence approach," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(3), pages 205-225.
    21. Zongjun Wang & Gongkhonkwa Rujira, 2013. "The Dynamic Relationship of Stock Indexes on Interbank Money Market Rates: Evidence from Thailand," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 827-843.
    22. repec:vls:finstu:v:21:y:2017:i:3:p:6-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2017. "The impact of ECBs conventional and unconventional monetary policies on European banking indexes returns," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def059, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).

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    Keywords

    Stock - Prices ; Federal funds rate ; Corporations;

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