IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fednep/00004.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The financial market effect of FOMC minutes

Author

Listed:
  • Carlo Rosa

Abstract

The influence of the Federal Reserve?s unanticipated target rate decisions on U.S. asset prices has been the subject of numerous studies. More recently, researchers have looked at the asset price response to statements issued by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Yet, despite a vast and growing body of evidence on the financial market effect of monetary news released on FOMC meeting days, little is known about the real-time response of U.S. asset prices to the information contained in central bank minutes. This article fills the gap by using a novel, high-frequency data set to examine the effect of the FOMC minutes release on U.S. asset prices?Treasury rates, stock prices, and U.S. dollar exchange rates. The author shows that the release significantly affects the volatility of U.S. asset prices and their trading volume. The magnitude of the effects is economically and statistically significant, and it is similar in magnitude to the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index release, although smaller than that of the FOMC statement and nonfarm payrolls releases. The asset price response to the minutes, however, has declined in recent years, suggesting that the FOMC has become more transparent by releasing information in a timelier manner.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo Rosa, 2013. "The financial market effect of FOMC minutes," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 67-81.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednep:00004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/epr/2013/0913rosa.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. Eric T. Swanson & John C. Williams, 2014. "Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3154-3185, October.
    3. Danielsson, J. & Payne, R., 2002. "Real trading patterns and prices in spot foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 203-222, April.
    4. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    5. Fischer, Andreas M. & Ranaldo, Angelo, 2011. "Does FOMC news increase global FX trading?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2965-2973, November.
    6. Jones, Charles M. & Lamont, Owen & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 1998. "Macroeconomic news and bond market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 315-337, March.
    7. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & Wang, Shing-Yi B. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1051-1068, May.
    8. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June.
    9. Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central bank communication and policy effectiveness," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 399-474.
    10. Phylaktis, Kate & Chen, Long, 2009. "Price discovery in foreign exchange markets: A comparison of indicative and actual transaction prices," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 640-654, September.
    11. Apel, Mikael & Blix Grimaldi, Marianna, 2012. "The Information Content of Central Bank Minutes," Working Paper Series 261, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    12. Giot, Pierre & Laurent, Sébastien & Petitjean, Mikael, 2010. "Trading activity, realized volatility and jumps," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 168-175, January.
    13. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    14. F. M. Bandi & J. R. Russell, 2008. "Microstructure Noise, Realized Variance, and Optimal Sampling," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(2), pages 339-369.
    15. Reeves, Rachel & Sawicki, Michael, 2007. "Do financial markets react to Bank of England communication?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 207-227, March.
    16. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev, 1998. "Deutsche Mark-Dollar Volatility: Intraday Activity Patterns, Macroeconomic Announcements, and Longer Run Dependencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 219-265, February.
    17. Bomfim, Antulio N., 2003. "Pre-announcement effects, news effects, and volatility: Monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 133-151, January.
    18. Alain P. Chaboud & Sergey V. Chernenko & Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "Trading Activity and Macroeconomic Announcements in High-Frequency Exchange Rate Data," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 589-596, 04-05.
    19. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1901-1915, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tadle, Raul Cruz, 2022. "FOMC minutes sentiments and their impact on financial markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    2. Saadaoui Mallek, Ray & Albaity, Mohamed & Molyneux, Philip, 2022. "Herding behaviour heterogeneity under economic and political risks: Evidence from GCC," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 345-361.
    3. Kedan, Danielle & Stuart, Rebecca, 2014. "Central Bank Communications: A Comparative Study," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 89-104, April.
    4. Chao Gu & Han Han & Randall Wright, 2020. "The Effects Of News When Liquidity Matters," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1411-1435, November.
    5. Lee A. Smales & Zhangxin (Frank) Liu & Cameron D. Robertson, 2022. "One session options: Playing the announcement lottery?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 192-211, February.
    6. Nicholas Apergis & Chritina Christou & Tasawar Hayat & Tareq Saeed, 2020. "U.S. Monetary Policy and Herding: Evidence from Commodity Markets," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 48(3), pages 355-374, September.
    7. Pierre L. Siklos, 2020. "U.S. Monetary Policy since the 1950s and the Changing Content of FOMC Minutes," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(3), pages 1192-1213, January.
    8. Nicholas Apergis & James E. Payne, 2018. "Monetary policy rules and the equity risk premium: Evidence from the US experience," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 287-299, October.
    9. Rosa, Carlo, 2016. "Walking on thin ice: Market quality around FOMC announcements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 5-8.
    10. Gu, Chen & Chen, Denghui & Stan, Raluca & Shen, Aizhong, 2022. "It is not just What you say, but How you say it: Why tonality matters in central bank communication," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 216-231.
    11. Rayane Hanifi & Klodiana Istrefi & Adrian Penalver, 2022. "Central Bank Communication of Uncertainty," Working papers 898, Banque de France.
    12. Apergis, Nicholas, 2015. "Newswire messages and sovereign credit ratings: Evidence from European countries under austerity reform programmes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 54-62.
    13. Petra Geraats, 2014. "Monetary Policy Transparency," CESifo Working Paper Series 4611, CESifo.
    14. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
    15. McCredie, Bronwyn & Docherty, Paul & Easton, Steve & Uylangco, Katherine, 2014. "The differential impact of monetary policy announcements and explanatory minutes releases on the Australian interest rate futures market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 261-271.
    16. David-Jan Jansen & Richhild Moessner, 2016. "Communicating dissent on monetary policy: Evidence from central bank minutes," DNB Working Papers 512, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    17. Prachi Mishra & Papa N’Diaye & Lam Nguyen, 2018. "Effects of Fed Announcements on Emerging Markets: What Determines Financial Market Reactions?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(4), pages 732-762, December.
    18. Smales, Lee A. & Apergis, Nick, 2016. "The influence of FOMC member characteristics on the monetary policy decision-making process," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 216-231.
    19. Paweł Baranowski & Wirginia Doryń & Tomasz Łyziak & Ewa Stanisławska, 2020. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: empirical evidence on an inflation targeting economy," NBP Working Papers 326, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    20. Apergis, Nicholas, 2015. "The role of FOMC minutes for US asset prices before and after the 2008 crisis: Evidence from GARCH volatility modeling," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 100-107.
    21. Dr. Enzo Rossi & Vincent Wolff, 2020. "Spillovers to exchange rates from monetary and macroeconomic communications events," Working Papers 2020-18, Swiss National Bank.
    22. Smales, L.A., 2021. "Macroeconomic news and treasury futures return volatility: Do treasury auctions matter?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    23. Kedan, Danielle & Stuart, Rebecca, 2014. "Central Bank Minutes," Economic Letters 12/EL/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    24. Wu, Wenbin, 2016. "Are financial markets less responsive to monetary policy shocks at the zero lower bound?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 258-261.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rosa, Carlo, 2014. "The high-frequency response of energy prices to U.S. monetary policy: Understanding the empirical evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 295-303.
    2. Apergis, Nicholas, 2015. "The role of FOMC minutes for US asset prices before and after the 2008 crisis: Evidence from GARCH volatility modeling," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 100-107.
    3. Robert S. Chirinko & Christopher Curran, 2013. "Greenspan Shrugs: Central Bank Communication, Formal Pronouncements and Bond Market Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 4236, CESifo.
    4. Fischer, Andreas M. & Ranaldo, Angelo, 2011. "Does FOMC news increase global FX trading?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2965-2973, November.
    5. Hussain, Syed Mujahid, 2011. "Simultaneous monetary policy announcements and international stock markets response: An intraday analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 752-764, March.
    6. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Identification and Inference Using Event Studies," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 48-65, September.
    7. Dick van Dijk & Robin L. Lumsdaine & Michel van der Wel, 2014. "Market Set-Up in Advance of Federal Reserve Policy Decisions," NBER Working Papers 19814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Carlo Rosa, 2016. "Fedspeak: Who Moves U.S. Asset Prices?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(4), pages 223-261, December.
    9. Smales, L.A., 2021. "Macroeconomic news and treasury futures return volatility: Do treasury auctions matter?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    10. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2009. "Explaining Monetary Policy in Press Conferences," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 42-84, June.
    11. Rosa, Carlo, 2011. "Words that shake traders," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 915-934.
    12. Rosa, Carlo, 2013. "Market efficiency broadcasted live: ECB code words and euro exchange rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 167-178.
    13. Jubinski, Daniel & Tomljanovich, Marc, 2013. "Do FOMC minutes matter to markets? An intraday analysis of FOMC minutes releases on individual equity volatility and returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 86-97.
    14. Farka, Mira, 2009. "The effect of monetary policy shocks on stock prices accounting for endogeneity and omitted variable biases," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-55, January.
    15. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2011. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 948-974, September.
    16. Alexander Kurov, 2012. "What determines the stock market's reaction to monetary policy statements?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(4), pages 175-187, November.
    17. Rangel, José Gonzalo, 2011. "Macroeconomic news, announcements, and stock market jump intensity dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1263-1276, May.
    18. Hansen, Stephen & McMahon, Michael & Tong, Matthew, 2019. "The long-run information effect of central bank communication," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 185-202.
    19. Rosa, Carlo, 2011. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates to monetary policy actions and statements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 478-489, February.
    20. Andrade, Philippe & Ferroni, Filippo, 2021. "Delphic and odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 816-832.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    high-frequency asset prices; monetary policy; FOMC minutes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednep:00004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gabriella Bucciarelli (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbnyus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.