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Delphic and Odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro-area

Author

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  • Philippe Andrade

    (Banque de France)

  • Filippo Ferroni

    (Banque de France and University of Surrey)

Abstract

In this paper, we study the impact of the ECB announcements on the market-based expectations of interest rates and of in ation rates. We nd that the impact of the ECB announcements on in ation expectations has changed over the last fteen years. In particular, while in the central part of our sample the ECB announcements were read as a signal about the economic conditions (i.e. Delphic component), in latest episodes they have been interpreted as a commitment device on future monetary policy accommodation (i.e. Odyssean component). We propose an approach to separately identify the Delphic and Odyssean component of the ECB monetary policy announcements and we measure their dynamic impact on the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Andrade & Filippo Ferroni, 2016. "Delphic and Odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro-area," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1216, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  • Handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:1216
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    File URL: https://repec.som.surrey.ac.uk/2016/DP12-16.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2018. "Understanding the Aspects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," Working Papers (Old Series) 1815, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 07 Nov 2018.
    2. Paul Hubert & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Imperfect Information in Macroeconomics," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 181-196.
    3. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
    4. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2018. "The Effect of ECB Forward Guidance on the Term Structure of Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(5), pages 193-222, December.
    5. Guerello, Chiara & Tronzano, Marco, 2020. "“Global factors, international spillovers, and the term structure of interest rates: New evidence for Asian Countries”," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    6. Mary Everett & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen & Peter McQuade & Anna Samarina, 2019. "Mortgage lending, monetary policy, and prudential measures in small euro-area economies: Evidence from Ireland and the Netherlands," DNB Working Papers 659, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    7. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Schaffer, Matthew, 2019. "Federal reserve private information and the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 34-49.
    8. Altavilla, Carlo & Brugnolini, Luca & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Motto, Roberto & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2019. "Measuring euro area monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 162-179.
    9. Kerssenfischer, Mark, 2019. "Information effects of euro area monetary policy: New evidence from high-frequency futures data," Discussion Papers 07/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Max Breitenlechner & Riikka Nuutilainen, 2019. "China's Monetary Policy and the Loan Market: How Strong is the Credit Channel in China?," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2019_027, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    11. Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Thürwächter, Claire, 2020. "Heterogeneity in corporate debt structures and the transmission of monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2402, European Central Bank.
    12. Marek Jarocinski & Peter Karadi, 2017. "Central Bank Information Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 1193, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. ter Ellen, Saskia & Jansen, Edvard & Midthjell, Nina Larsson, 2020. "ECB Spillovers and domestic monetary policy effectiveness in small open economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    14. Goodhead, Robert, 2018. "The Effect of ECB Policy Announcements on Sovereign Yields: A Return to Normal Transmission?," Economic Letters 4/EL/18, Central Bank of Ireland.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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