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Delphic and Odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro-area

Author

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  • Philippe Andrade

    (Banque de France)

  • Filippo Ferroni

    (Banque de France and University of Surrey)

Abstract

In this paper, we study the impact of the ECB announcements on the market-based expectations of interest rates and of in ation rates. We nd that the impact of the ECB announcements on in ation expectations has changed over the last fteen years. In particular, while in the central part of our sample the ECB announcements were read as a signal about the economic conditions (i.e. Delphic component), in latest episodes they have been interpreted as a commitment device on future monetary policy accommodation (i.e. Odyssean component). We propose an approach to separately identify the Delphic and Odyssean component of the ECB monetary policy announcements and we measure their dynamic impact on the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Andrade & Filippo Ferroni, 2016. "Delphic and Odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro-area," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1216, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  • Handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:1216
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    File URL: https://repec.som.surrey.ac.uk/2016/DP12-16.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2013. "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1212-1247, June.
    2. Michael Kiley, 2016. "Policy Paradoxes in the New-Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 1-15, July.
    3. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    4. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S. & Paustian, Matthias, 2015. "Inflation and output in New Keynesian models with a transient interest rate peg," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 230-243.
    5. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2015. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," Discussion Papers 1711, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Feb 2017.
    6. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    7. C.Jardet & A. Monks, 2014. "Euro Area monetary policy shocks: impact on financial asset prices during the crisis?," Working papers 512, Banque de France.
    8. David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
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    10. Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "The Fed and Interest Rates - A High-Frequency Identification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 90-95, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Goodhead, Robert, 2018. "The Effect of ECB Policy Announcements on Sovereign Yields: A Return to Normal Transmission?," Economic Letters 4/EL/18, Central Bank of Ireland.
    2. Jarocinski, Marek & Karadi, Peter, 2018. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises - The Role of Information Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 12765, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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