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Trading Activity and Macroeconomic Announcements in High-Frequency Exchange Rate Data

Author

Listed:
  • Alain P. Chaboud
  • Sergey V. Chernenko
  • Jonathan H. Wright

Abstract

This article introduces a new high-frequency data set that includes global trading volume and prices over five years in the spot euro-dollar and dollar-yen currency pairs. Studying the effects of US macroeconomic data releases, we show that spikes in trading volume tend to occur even when announcements are in line with market expectations, in sharp contrast to the price response. There is some evidence that the volume after announcements is negatively related to the ex ante dispersion of market expectations, contrary to the standard theoretical prediction. At very high frequency, we find evidence that much of the immediate jump in prices in reaction to an announcement occurs before the surge in volume. (JEL: F31, G14) (c) 2008 by the European Economic Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Alain P. Chaboud & Sergey V. Chernenko & Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "Trading Activity and Macroeconomic Announcements in High-Frequency Exchange Rate Data," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 589-596, 04-05.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:jeurec:v:6:y:2008:i:2-3:p:589-596
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fischer, Andreas M. & Ranaldo, Angelo, 2011. "Does FOMC news increase global FX trading?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2965-2973, November.
    2. Chien-Hsiu Lin & Shih-Kuei Lin & An-Chi Wu, 2015. "Foreign exchange option pricing in the currency cycle with jump risks," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 755-789, May.
    3. Ferraro, Domenico & Rogoff, Kenneth & Rossi, Barbara, 2015. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates? An empirical analysis of the relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 116-141.
    4. Domenico Ferraro & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates?," Working Papers 11-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    5. Christopher J. Neely, 2011. "A survey of announcement effects on foreign exchange volatility and jumps," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(Sep), pages 361-385.
    6. Chaboud, Alain P. & Chiquoine, Benjamin & Hjalmarsson, Erik & Loretan, Mico, 2010. "Frequency of observation and the estimation of integrated volatility in deep and liquid financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 212-240, March.
    7. Andrey G. Shulgin, 2017. "A Simple Theoretical Setup for the Evaluation of Sterilized Intervention Effectiveness in a Small Open Commodity Exporting Economy," HSE Working papers WP BRP 170/EC/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    8. Takatoshi Ito & Kenta Yamada & Misako Takayasu & Hideki Takayasu, 2020. "Execution Risk and Arbitrage Opportunities in the Foreign Exchange Markets," NBER Working Papers 26706, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Ben Omrane, Walid & Heinen, Andréas, 2010. "Public news announcements and quoting activity in the Euro/Dollar foreign exchange market," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2419-2431, November.
    11. Tim Bollerslev & Jia Li & Yuan Xue, 2018. "Volume, Volatility, and Public News Announcements," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(4), pages 2005-2041.
    12. Gençay, Ramazan & Gradojevic, Nikola, 2013. "Private information and its origins in an electronic foreign exchange market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 86-93.
    13. Carlo Rosa, 2013. "The financial market effect of FOMC minutes," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 67-81.
    14. Doojin Ryu & Robert I. Webb & Jinyoung Yu, 2023. "Who pays the liquidity cost? Central bank announcements and adverse selection," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 904-924, July.
    15. Weber, Christoph S., 2019. "The effect of central bank transparency on exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 165-181.
    16. Carlo Rosa, 2016. "Fedspeak: Who Moves U.S. Asset Prices?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(4), pages 223-261, December.
    17. Huang, Wenqian & Ranaldo, Angelo & Schrimpf, Andreas & Somogyi, Fabricius, 2022. "Constrained Dealers and Market Efficiency," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264054, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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