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The high-frequency response of exchange rates to monetary policy actions and statements

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  • Rosa, Carlo

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of US monetary policy on the level and volatility of exchange rates using an event study with intraday data for five currencies (the US dollar exchange rate versus the euro, the Canadian dollar, the British pound, the Swiss franc, and the Japanese yen). I construct two indicators of news about monetary policy stemming separately from policy decisions and from balance of risk statements. Estimation results show that both policy decisions and communication have economically large and highly significant effects on the exchange rates, with the surprise component of statements accounting for most of the explainable variation in exchange rate returns in response to monetary policy. This paper also shows that exchange rates tend to absorb FOMC monetary surprises within 30-40Â min from the announcement release.

Suggested Citation

  • Rosa, Carlo, 2011. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates to monetary policy actions and statements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 478-489, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:2:p:478-489
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriella Cagliesi & Antonio Carlo Francesco Della Bina & Massimo Tivegna, 2016. "The Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate: How Traders’ Behaviour Has Been Affected by the 2007–2008 Financial Crisis," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 45(2), pages 139-177, July.
    2. Carlo Rosa, 2012. "How "unconventional" are large-scale asset purchases? The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Staff Reports 560, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Selva Demiralp & Hakan Kara & Pýnar Özlü, 2011. "Monetary policy communication under inflation targeting: Do words speak louder than actions?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1128, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    4. Marcio Garcia & Marcelo Medeiros & Francisco Eduardo de Luna e Almeida Santos, 2014. "The impact of macroeconomic announcements in the Brazilian futures markets," Textos para discussão 623, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    5. Rosa, Carlo, 2013. "Market efficiency broadcasted live: ECB code words and euro exchange rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 167-178.
    6. Yutaka Kurihara, 2012. "Exchange rate determination and structural changes in response to monetary policies," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 187-196, July.
    7. McCredie, Bronwyn & Docherty, Paul & Easton, Steve & Uylangco, Katherine, 2014. "The differential impact of monetary policy announcements and explanatory minutes releases on the Australian interest rate futures market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 261-271.
    8. Rosa, Carlo, 2011. "Words that shake traders," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 915-934.
    9. Matthias Bauer & Martin Zenker, 2012. "Minor Nuisance Around Foreign Exchange Markets - Lessons from the Stability and Growth Pact Debate," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 2012-32, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    10. Égert, Balázs & Kočenda, Evžen, 2014. "The impact of macro news and central bank communication on emerging European forex markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 73-88.
    11. Rosa, Carlo, 2014. "The high-frequency response of energy prices to U.S. monetary policy: Understanding the empirical evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 295-303.
    12. Fawley, Brett W. & Neely, Christopher J., 2014. "The evolution of Federal Reserve policy and the impact of monetary policy surprises on asset prices," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 96(1), pages 73-109.
    13. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2014. "Monetary policy and the first- and second-moment exchange rate change during the global financial crisis: Evidence from Thailand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 170-194.
    14. Papadamou, Stephanos & Sidiropoulos, Moïse & Spyromitros, Eleftherios, 2014. "Does central bank transparency affect stock market volatility?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 362-377.
    15. Buehlmaier, Matthias M. M. & Zechner, Josef, 2016. "Financial media, price discovery, and merger arbitrage," CFS Working Paper Series 551, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    16. Grammatikos, Theoharry & Lehnert, Thorsten & Otsubo, Yoichi, 2015. "Market perceptions of US and European policy actions around the subprime crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 99-113.
    17. repec:fau:fauart:v:68:y:2018:i:1:p:2-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Demiralp, Selva & Kara, Hakan & Özlü, Pınar, 2012. "Monetary policy communication in Turkey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 540-556.
    19. Evans, Kevin P., 2011. "Intraday jumps and US macroeconomic news announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2511-2527, October.
    20. repec:eee:intfin:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:171-189 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Mario González & Raúl Tadle, 2018. "Monetary Policy Effects on the Chilean Stock Market: An Automated Content Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 817, Central Bank of Chile.
    22. Apergis, Nicholas, 2015. "The role of FOMC minutes for US asset prices before and after the 2008 crisis: Evidence from GARCH volatility modeling," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 100-107.
    23. Carlo Rosa, 2013. "The high-frequency response of energy prices to monetary policy: understanding the empirical evidence," Staff Reports 598, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    C14 E52 E58 F31 High-frequency exchange rates US Federal Reserve Central bank communication Monetary policy shocks News shocks;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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