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The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Exchange Rate: A Study Using Intraday Data

  • Jonathan Kearns

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Phil Manners

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

This paper uses intraday data to estimate the effect of changes in monetary policy on the exchange rate. We use an event study with carefully selected sample periods for four countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom) to ensure that the change in monetary policy is exogenous to the exchange rate. Intraday data allow us to use a short event window, which improves the accuracy of estimates, and demonstrates that the change in policy is rapidly incorporated into the exchange rate. On average, an unanticipated tightening of 25 basis points is found to appreciate the exchange rate by around 0.35 per cent, with estimates for the individual countries ranging from ¼–½ of a per cent. The estimation indicates that monetary policy changes account for only a small part of the observed variability of exchange rates in these countries. We also find that changes in monetary policy have substantially different effects on the exchange rate depending on how they alter expectations regarding future policy. Surprises that cause expectations of future policy to be revised by the full amount of the surprise are found to have a larger impact on the exchange rate (around 0.4 per cent) than surprises that only bring forward an anticipated change in policy and do not change expectations of future policy (around 0.2 per cent).

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Research Discussion Papers with number rdp2005-02.

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Date of creation: Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2005-02
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  1. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers, 1999. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," International Finance Discussion Papers 652, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. David Archer & Andy Brookes & Michael Reddell, 1999. "A cash rate system for implementing monetary policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, March.
  3. Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November.
  4. Monika Piazzesi & Eric Swanson, 2004. "Future prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  5. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
  6. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004. "What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Jon Danielsson & Richard Payne, 1999. "Real Trading Patterns and Prices in Spot Foreign Exchange Markets," FMG Discussion Papers dp320, Financial Markets Group.
  8. Charles Engel, 1995. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Eric Swanson & Jonathan H. Wright, 2002. "Identifying the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates using high frequency data," International Finance Discussion Papers 739, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Payne, Richard G., 1996. "Microstructural dynamics in a foreign exchange electronic broking system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 829-852, December.
  11. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets," Staff Reports 99, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  12. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2000. "The Impact of Monetary Policyon the Exchange Rate; Evidence From Three Small Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 00/141, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
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