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The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Exchange Rate: A Study Using Intraday Data

  • Jonathan Kearns

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Phil Manners

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

We investigate the impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate using an event study with intraday data for four countries. Carefully selecting the sample periods ensures that the policy change is exogenous to the exchange rate. An unanticipated tightening of 25 basis points leads to a rapid appreciation of around 0.35 percent. We also show that the impact depends on how the surprise affects expectations of future monetary policy. If expectations of future policy are revised by the full amount of the surprise, then the impact on the exchange rate is larger (0.4 percent) than if the surprise only brings forward an anticipated change in policy (0.2 percent).

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Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 2 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: -

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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2006:q:4:a:6
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  1. Jon Danielsson & Richard Payne, 1999. "Real Trading Patterns and Prices in Spot Foreign Exchange Markets," FMG Discussion Papers dp320, Financial Markets Group.
  2. Monika Piazzesi & Eric T. Swanson, 2004. "Future prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar, pages -.
  3. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
  4. Jeronimo Zettelmeyer, 2000. "The Impact of Monetary Policyon the Exchange Rate; Evidence From Three Small Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 00/141, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-16, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  6. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," NBER Working Papers 10402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
  8. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Eric Swanson & Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates Using High Frequency Data," NBER Working Papers 9660, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
  10. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H., 2003. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1403-1424, October.
  11. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Payne, Richard G., 1996. "Microstructural dynamics in a foreign exchange electronic broking system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 829-852, December.
  12. David Archer & Andy Brookes & Michael Reddell, 1999. "A cash rate system for implementing monetary policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, pages -, March.
  13. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
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