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The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Exchange Rate: A Study Using Intraday Data

  • Jonathan Kearns

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Phil Manners

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

We investigate the impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate using an event study with intraday data for four countries. Carefully selecting the sample periods ensures that the policy change is exogenous to the exchange rate. An unanticipated tightening of 25 basis points leads to a rapid appreciation of around 0.35 percent. We also show that the impact depends on how the surprise affects expectations of future monetary policy. If expectations of future policy are revised by the full amount of the surprise, then the impact on the exchange rate is larger (0.4 percent) than if the surprise only brings forward an anticipated change in policy (0.2 percent).

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Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 2 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2006:q:4:a:6
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  1. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Eric Swanson & Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates Using High Frequency Data," NBER Working Papers 9660, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange?," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-23, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  3. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004. "What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Charles Engel, 1995. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  6. David Archer & Andy Brookes & Michael Reddell, 1999. "A cash rate system for implementing monetary policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, March.
  7. Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate: evidence from three small open economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 635-652, April.
  8. Danielsson, J. & Payne, R., 2002. "Real trading patterns and prices in spot foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 203-222, April.
  9. Piazzesi, Monika & Swanson, Eric T., 2008. "Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 677-691, May.
  10. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets," Staff Reports 99, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  11. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
  12. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H., 2003. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1403-1424, October.
  13. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Payne, Richard G., 1996. "Microstructural dynamics in a foreign exchange electronic broking system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 829-852, December.
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