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The role of FOMC minutes for US asset prices before and after the 2008 crisis: Evidence from GARCH volatility modeling

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  • Apergis, Nicholas

Abstract

This study explores the impact on US asset prices of novel data from minutes released by the Federal Open Market Committee. With data from fixed income assets, the main exchange rates of the US dollar, a House Price Index and various GARCH modeling, the empirical findings document significant effects of those minutes on the mean and volatility of asset prices only before the 2008 crisis. After the crisis, these effects become weaker, which is possibly attributable to the stronger transparency of monetary policy decisions as well as the implementation of monetary policy that persistently leads interest rates close to the zero lower bound, where they carry a weaker informational content. The baseline results survive a number of robustness tests. In addition, the findings are expected to provide important insight for monetary policymakers and market participants as they provide significant information on how well decisions are anticipated by market participants and how they adjust their views about future monetary policy, output growth, and inflation.

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  • Apergis, Nicholas, 2015. "The role of FOMC minutes for US asset prices before and after the 2008 crisis: Evidence from GARCH volatility modeling," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 100-107.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:55:y:2015:i:c:p:100-107
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2014.09.002
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    Cited by:

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    3. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keng Marco Lau & Ruipeng Liu & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2019. "Price jumps in developed stock markets: the role of monetary policy committee meetings," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(2), pages 298-312, April.
    4. Xiafei Li & Dongxin Li & Xuhui Zhang & Guiwu Wei & Lan Bai & Yu Wei, 2021. "Forecasting regular and extreme gold price volatility: The roles of asymmetry, extreme event, and jump," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1501-1523, December.
    5. Kia, Amir, 2017. "Monetary policy transparency in a forward-looking market: Evidence from the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 597-617.
    6. Leandro Maciel & Fernando Gomide & Rosangela Ballini, 2016. "Evolving Fuzzy-GARCH Approach for Financial Volatility Modeling and Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(3), pages 379-398, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FOMC minutes; US asset markets; GARCH volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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