IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/revfin/v18y2009i1p47-55.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effect of monetary policy shocks on stock prices accounting for endogeneity and omitted variable biases

Author

Listed:
  • Farka, Mira

Abstract

A new high frequency data set is used to estimate the impact of the Fed on the level and volatility of stock prices while accounting for endogeneity and omitted variable biases and potential asymmetries. Results show that after addressing these issues, the effect of policy shocks on the level and volatility of stock returns is higher than previously reported. GARCH findings indicate that the volatility impact is tent-shaped, spiking during policy announcements and declining before and after the release. The level and conditional volatility of stock returns is found to respond asymmetrically to the type of policy shocks (timing versus future path of monetary policy) and the type of policy action (easing versus tightening).

Suggested Citation

  • Farka, Mira, 2009. "The effect of monetary policy shocks on stock prices accounting for endogeneity and omitted variable biases," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-55, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:18:y:2009:i:1:p:47-55
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1058-3300(08)00033-5
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    3. Thorbecke, Willem, 1997. "On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 635-654, June.
    4. Smirlock, Michael J & Yawitz, Jess B, 1985. "Asset Returns, Discount Rate Changes, and Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1141-1158, September.
    5. Pearce, Douglas K & Roley, V Vance, 1985. "Stock Prices and Economic News," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(1), pages 49-67, January.
    6. Jensen, Gerald R. & Mercer, Jeffrey M. & Johnson, Robert R., 1996. "Business conditions, monetary policy, and expected security returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 213-237, February.
    7. Bento J. Lobo, 2002. "Interest Rate Surprises and Stock Prices," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 73-91, February.
    8. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    9. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 2000. "Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 433-451.
    10. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian T. & Swanson, Eric P., 2007. "Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 201-212, April.
    11. Ray C. Fair, 2002. "Events That Shook the Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 713-732, October.
    12. Jones, Charles M. & Lamont, Owen & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 1998. "Macroeconomic news and bond market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 315-337, March.
    13. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June.
    14. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669.
    15. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    16. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. "Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-1632, December.
    17. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
    18. Bento J. Lobo & Ali F. Darrat & Sanjay Ramchander, 2006. "The Asymmetric Impact of Monetary Policy on Currency Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 41(2), pages 289-303, May.
    19. Chen, Carl R. & Mohan, Nancy J. & Steiner, Thomas L., 1999. "Discount rate changes, stock market returns, volatility, and trading volume: Evidence from intraday data and implications for market efficiency," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 897-924, June.
    20. Gregory Koutmos, 1999. "Asymmetric Price and Volatility Adjustments in Emerging Asian Stock Markets," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1-2), pages 83-101.
    21. Reinhart, Vincent & Simin, Timothy, 1997. "The market reaction to federal reserve policy action from 1989 to 1992," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 149-168.
    22. Lobo, Bento J, 2000. "Asymmetric Effects of Interest Rate Changes on Stock Prices," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 35(3), pages 125-143, August.
    23. John H. Boyd & Jian Hu & Ravi Jagannathan, 2005. "The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News Is Usually Good for Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 649-672, April.
    24. Engle, Robert F, 1998. "Macroeconomic Announcements and Volatility of Treasury Futures," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt7rd4g3bk, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    25. Gerald R. Jensen & Jeffrey M. Mercer, 2002. "Monetary Policy and the Cross‐Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 25(1), pages 125-139, March.
    26. d'Amico, Stefania & Mira Farka, 2003. "The Fed and Stock Market: A Proxy and Instrumental Variable Identification," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 52, Royal Economic Society.
    27. Bomfim, Antulio N., 2003. "Pre-announcement effects, news effects, and volatility: Monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 133-151, January.
    28. Mark J. Flannery & Aris A. Protopapadakis, 2002. "Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 751-782.
    29. Koutmos, Gregory, 1998. "Asymmetries in the Conditional Mean and the Conditional Variance: Evidence From Nine Stock Markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 277-290, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2011. "Reactions of stock market to monetary policy shocks during the global financial crisis: the Nigerian case," MPRA Paper 35581, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Dec 2011.
    2. Alexander Kurov, 2012. "What determines the stock market's reaction to monetary policy statements?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(4), pages 175-187, November.
    3. Stylianos X. Koufadakis, 2015. "Asymmetries on Closed End Country Funds Premium and Monetary Policy Announcements: An Approach Trough the Perspective of Foreign Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 29-65, july-Dece.
    4. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Frijns, Bart & Tourani-Rad, Alireza, 2017. "When no news is good news – The decrease in investor fear after the FOMC announcement," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 187-199.
    5. Smales, L.A., 2021. "Macroeconomic news and treasury futures return volatility: Do treasury auctions matter?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    6. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn & Techarongrojwong, Yaowaluk, 2013. "Do monetary policy announcements affect stock prices in emerging market countries? The case of Thailand," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 446-469.
    7. Akhtar, Shumi & Akhtar, Farida & Jahromi, Maria & John, Kose, 2017. "Impact of interest rate surprises on Islamic and conventional stocks and bonds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 218-231.
    8. Rangel, José Gonzalo, 2011. "Macroeconomic news, announcements, and stock market jump intensity dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1263-1276, May.
    9. Entorf, Horst & Steiner, Christian, 2006. "Makroökonomische Nachrichten und die Reaktion des 15-Sekunden-DAX: Eine Ereignisstudie zur Wirkung der ZEW-Konjunkturprognose," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 77415, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    10. Nicholas Taylor, 2010. "The Determinants of Future U.S. Monetary Policy: High‐Frequency Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2‐3), pages 399-420, March.
    11. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn & Techarongrojwong, Yaowaluk, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy decisions on stock returns: Evidence from Thailand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 487-507.
    12. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    13. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2012. "The effects of Federal funds rate surprises on S&P 500 volatility and volatility risk premium," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 497-510.
    14. Entorf Horst & Steiner Christian, 2007. "Makroökonomische Nachrichten und die Reaktion des 15-Sekunden-DAX: Eine Ereignisstudie zur Wirkung der ZEW-Konjunkturprognose / Announcement of Business Cycle Forecasts and the Reaction of the German ," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 227(1), pages 3-26, February.
    15. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2011. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 948-974, September.
    16. Gagan Deep Sharma & Mandeep Mahendru & Mrinalini Srivastava, 2019. "Can Central Banking Policies Make a Difference in Financial Market Performance in Emerging Economies? The Case of India," Economies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(2), pages 1-19, May.
    17. repec:jns:jbstat:v:227:y:2007:i:1:p:3-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Kam F. Chan & Philip Gray, 2018. "Volatility jumps and macroeconomic news announcements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(8), pages 881-897, August.
    19. Don Bredin & Stuart Hyde & Dirk Nitzsche & Gerard O'Reilly, 2009. "European monetary policy surprises: the aggregate and sectoral stock market response," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 156-171.
    20. Don Bredin & Caroline Gavin & Gerard O Reilly, 2003. "The Influence of Domestic and International Interest Rates on the ISEQ," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 249-265.
    21. Don Bredin & Gerard O’Reilly & Simon Stevenson, 2007. "Monetary Shocks and REIT Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 315-331, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:18:y:2009:i:1:p:47-55. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620170 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620170 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.