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Interest Rate Surprises and Stock Prices

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  • Bento J. Lobo

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of unexpected changes in the federal funds target on stock prices from 1988 to 2001. Measures of interest rate surprises are constructed from survey data and changes in the 3-month T-bill yield. I find that surprises associated with decreases in the target cause stock prices to rise significantly. Surprises associated with increases in the target increase stock market volatility on the announcement day, with volatility reverting to pre-surprise levels on the day after the announcement. This volatility pattern is only evident since 1994. An implication is that concerns about immediate disclosure causing persistent and heightened stock market volatility might be misplaced. Copyright 2002 by the Eastern Finance Association.

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  • Bento J. Lobo, 2002. "Interest Rate Surprises and Stock Prices," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 73-91, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:37:y:2002:i:1:p:73-91
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    Cited by:

    1. Haiyan Yin & Jiawen Yang & William C. Handorf, 2010. "State Dependency Of Bank Stock Reaction To Federal Funds Rate Target Changes," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 33(3), pages 289-315.
    2. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2011. "Reactions of stock market to monetary policy shocks during the global financial crisis: the Nigerian case," MPRA Paper 35581, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Dec 2011.
    3. DE CEUSTER, Marc J.K. & LI, Jie & ZHANG, Hairui, 2012. "Did federal funds target rate changes affect the market value of insurance companies?," Working Papers 2012027, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
    4. Alexandros Kontonikas & Alexandros Kostakis, 2013. "On Monetary Policy and Stock Market Anomalies," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(7-8), pages 1009-1042, September.
    5. Florackis, Chris & Kostakis, Alexandros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2011. "Transmission of macro-liquidity shocks to liquidity-sorted stock portfolios’ returns: The role of the financial crisis," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-31, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    6. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Frijns, Bart & Tourani-Rad, Alireza, 2017. "When no news is good news – The decrease in investor fear after the FOMC announcement," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 187-199.
    7. Chris Florackis & Alexandros Kontonikas & Alexandros Kostakis, 2010. "Transmission of macro-liquidity shocks to liquidity-sorted stock portfolios’ returns: The role of the financial crisis," Working Papers 2011_22, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Apr 2011.
    8. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2013. "Monetary policy and stock market dynamics across monetary regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 381-406.
    9. Farka, Mira, 2009. "The effect of monetary policy shocks on stock prices accounting for endogeneity and omitted variable biases," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-55, January.
    10. Khaled Hussainey & Le Khanh Ngoc, 2009. "The impact of macroeconomic indicators on Vietnamese stock prices," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 321-332, August.
    11. Kevin Krieger & Nathan Mauck & Denghui Chen, 2012. "VIX changes and derivative returns on FOMC meeting days," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(3), pages 315-331, September.
    12. Andrew Phiri, 2016. "Did the global financial crisis alter equilibrium adjustment dynamics between the US federal fund fund rates and stock price volatility in the SSA region?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 778-788.
    13. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2008. "Equity portfolio diversification under time-varying predictability and comovements: evidence from Ireland, the US, and the UK," Working Papers 2008-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    14. Phiri, Andrew, 2017. "Has the South African Reserve Bank responded to equity prices since the sub-prime crisis? An asymmetric convergence approach," MPRA Paper 76542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Did the global financial crisis alter equilibrium adjustment dynamics between the US Fed rates and stock price volatility in the SSA region?," MPRA Paper 69976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Nikiforos Laopodis, 2010. "Dynamic linkages between monetary policy and the stock market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 271-293, October.
    17. Kurov, Alexander, 2012. "What determines the stock market's reaction to monetary policy statements?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 175-187.
    18. Atanasov, Victoria, 2016. "Conditional interest rate risk and the cross-section of excess stock returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 23-32.
    19. Kamil Saba & Janusz Kudła, 2014. "The impact of NBP’s interest rate changes on the changes and volatility of WIG20," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 37.

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