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Monetary Policy and the Cross‐Section of Expected Stock Returns

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  • Gerald R. Jensen
  • Jeffrey M. Mercer

Abstract

Ample evidence shows that size and book‐to‐market equity explain significant cross‐sectional variation in stock returns, whereas beta explains little or none of the variation. Recent studies also demonstrate that proxies for monetary stringency increase the explained variation in stock returns. We reexamine a three‐factor model that includes beta, size, and book‐to‐market equity, while allowing monetary conditions to influence the relations between these risk factors and average stock returns. We find that ex‐ante proxies for monetary stringency significantly influence the relations between stock returns and all three risk factors. Additionally, all three variables are found to contribute significantly to explaining cross‐sectional returns in a three‐factor model that includes the monetary sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerald R. Jensen & Jeffrey M. Mercer, 2002. "Monetary Policy and the Cross‐Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 25(1), pages 125-139, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:25:y:2002:i:1:p:125-139
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-6803.00008
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    Cited by:

    1. Gallo, Lindsey A. & Hann, Rebecca N. & Li, Congcong, 2016. "Aggregate earnings surprises, monetary policy, and stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 103-120.
    2. Paulo Maio, 2014. "Another Look at the Stock Return Response to Monetary Policy Actions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 321-371.
    3. Siamak Javadi & Ali Nejadmalayeri & Timothy L Krehbiel, 2018. "Do FOMC Actions Speak Loudly? Evidence from Corporate Bond Credit Spreads [Communication and monetary policy]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(5), pages 1877-1909.
    4. Jing Wang & Xiaoneng Zhu, 2013. "The reaction of international stock markets to Federal Reserve policy," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 27(1), pages 1-30, March.
    5. Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Firm Size and Equity Returns in An Emerging Market: Panel Evidence of Malaysia," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 11(2), pages 29-55.
    6. Alexandros Kontonikas & Alexandros Kostakis, 2013. "On Monetary Policy and Stock Market Anomalies," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(7-8), pages 1009-1042, September.
    7. Andrew Detzel, 2017. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Investment Opportunities, And Asset Prices," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 315-348, September.
    8. Shynkevich, Andrei, 2016. "Predictability in bond returns using technical trading rules," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 55-69.
    9. Weis Christian & René-Ojas Woltering & Steffen Sebastian, 2017. "The Interest Rate Sensitivity of Value and Growth Stocks - Evidence from Listed Real Estate," ERES eres2017_325, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    10. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Overshooting: A Rationale for the Wall/Main Street Disconnect," NBER Working Papers 27712, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Sashikanta Khuntia & Gourishankar S. Hiremath, 2019. "Monetary Policy Announcements and Stock Returns: Some Further Evidence from India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(4), pages 801-827, December.
    12. Prabu A, Edwin & Bhattacharyya, Indranil & Ray, Partha, 2016. "Is the stock market impervious to monetary policy announcements: Evidence from emerging India," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 166-179.
    13. Ming-Chi Chen & Chi-Lu Peng & So-De Shyu & Jhih-Hong Zeng, 2012. "Market States and the Effect on Equity REIT Returns due to Changes in Monetary Policy Stance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 364-382, August.
    14. Farka, Mira, 2009. "The effect of monetary policy shocks on stock prices accounting for endogeneity and omitted variable biases," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-55, January.
    15. He, Ling T., 2006. "Variations in effects of monetary policy on stock market returns in the past four decades," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 331-349.
    16. Jensen, Gerald R. & Mercer, Jeffrey M., 2006. "Security markets and the information content of monetary policy turning points," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 477-494, September.
    17. Sekandary, Ghezal & Bask, Mikael, 2023. "Monetary policy uncertainty, monetary policy surprises and stock returns," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    18. Vintilă Georgeta & Păunescu Radu Alin, 2015. "Econometric Tests of the CAPM Model for a Portfolio Composed of Companies Listed on Nasdaq and Dow Jones Components," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 62(3), pages 453-480, November.
    19. Lai, Ya-Wen, 2017. "Macroeconomic factors and index option returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 452-477.
    20. Paul Goebel & David Harrison & Jeffrey Mercer & Ryan Whitby, 2013. "REIT Momentum and Characteristic-Related REIT Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 564-581, October.
    21. David A. Becher & Gerald R. Jensen & Jeffrey M. Mercer, 2008. "Monetary Policy Indicators As Predictors Of Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 357-379, December.

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