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Using Intraday Data to Gauge Financial Market Responses to Federal Reserve and ECB Monetary Policy Decisions

Author

Listed:
  • Magnus Andersson

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract

This paper examines bond and stock market volatility reactions in the euro area and the United States following their respective economies’ monetary policy decisions, over a uniform sample period (April 1999–May 2006). For this purpose, intraday data on the U.S. and euro-area bond and stock markets are used. A strong upsurge in intraday volatility at the time of the release of the monetary policy decisions by the two central banks is found, which is more pronounced for the U.S. financial markets following Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions. Part of the increase in intraday volatility in the two economies surrounding monetary policy decisions can be explained by both news of the level of monetary policy and revisions in the expected future monetary policy path. The observed strong discrepancy between asset-price reactions in the United States and in the euro area following monetary policy decisions still remains a puzzle, although some tentative explanations are provided in the paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Magnus Andersson, 2010. "Using Intraday Data to Gauge Financial Market Responses to Federal Reserve and ECB Monetary Policy Decisions," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(2), pages 117-146, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2010:q:2:a:5
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Have minutes helped to predict fed funds rate changes?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 18-32.
    2. Paiardini, Paola, 2014. "The impact of economic news on bond prices: Evidence from the MTS platform," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 302-322.
    3. Fady Barsoum, 2013. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on a Panel of Stock Market Volatilities: A Factor-Augmented Bayesian VAR Approach," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2013-15, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    4. repec:bpj:bejmac:v:17:y:2017:i:1:p:41:n:7 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ben Omrane, Walid & Hussain, Syed Mujahid, 2016. "Foreign news and the structure of co-movement in European equity markets: An intraday analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 572-582.
    6. Kentaro Iwatsubo & Tomoki Taishi, 2016. "Quantitative Easing and Liquidity in the Japanese Government Bond Market," Discussion Papers 1623, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    7. Moura, Marcelo L. & Gaião, Rafael L., 2014. "Impact of macroeconomic surprises on the Brazilian yield curve and expected inflation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 114-144.
    8. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Have FOMC minutes helped markets to predict FED funds rate changes?," Working Paper Series 1961, European Central Bank.
    9. Kentaro Iwatsubo & Tomoki Taishi, 2016. "Quantitative Easing and Liquidity in the Japanese Government Bond Market," IMES Discussion Paper Series 16-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    10. Jubinski, Daniel & Tomljanovich, Marc, 2013. "Do FOMC minutes matter to markets? An intraday analysis of FOMC minutes releases on individual equity volatility and returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 86-97.
    11. Hussain, Syed Mujahid, 2011. "Simultaneous monetary policy announcements and international stock markets response: An intraday analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 752-764, March.
    12. Hubert Paul, 2017. "Qualitative and quantitative central bank communication and inflation expectations," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-41, January.
    13. Rosa, Carlo, 2011. "Words that shake traders," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 915-934.
    14. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Frijns, Bart & Tourani-Rad, Alireza, 2017. "When no news is good news – The decrease in investor fear after the FOMC announcement," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 187-199.
    15. Jung, Alexander & El-Shagi, Makram, 2015. "Has the publication of minutes helped markets to predict the monetary policy decisions of the Bank of England's MPC?," Working Paper Series 1808, European Central Bank.
    16. repec:eee:jbfina:v:80:y:2017:i:c:p:33-50 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Have monetary data releases helped markets to predict the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank?," Working Paper Series 1926, European Central Bank.
    18. repec:eee:intfin:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:171-189 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Carlo Rosa, 2011. "Talking Less And Moving The Market More: Evidence From The Ecb And The Fed," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(1), pages 51-81, February.
    20. Apergis, Nicholas, 2015. "The role of FOMC minutes for US asset prices before and after the 2008 crisis: Evidence from GARCH volatility modeling," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 100-107.
    21. Di Maggio, Marco & Kacperczyk, Marcin, 2017. "The unintended consequences of the zero lower bound policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 59-80.
    22. El-Shagi, Makram & Jung, Alexander, 2015. "Have minutes helped markets to predict the MPC's monetary policy decisions?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 222-234.
    23. Stylianos X. Koufadakis, 2015. "Asymmetries on Closed End Country Funds Premium and Monetary Policy Announcements: An Approach Trough the Perspective of Foreign Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 29-65, july-Dece.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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