IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocawp/11-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Private Information Flow and Price Discovery in the U.S. Treasury Market

Author

Listed:
  • George Jiang
  • Ingrid Lo

Abstract

Existing studies show that U.S. Treasury bond price changes are mainly driven by public information shocks, as manifested in macroeconomic news announcements and events. The literature also shows that heterogeneous private information contributes significantly to price discovery for U.S. Treasury securities. In this paper, we use high frequency transaction data for 2-, 5-, and 10-year Treasury notes and employ a Markov switching model to identify intraday private information flow in the U.S. Treasury market. We show that the probability of private information flow (PPIF) identified in our model effectively captures permanent price effects in U.S. Treasury securities. In addition, our results show that public information shocks and heterogeneous private information are the main factors of bond price discovery on announcement days, whereas private information and liquidity shocks play more important roles in bond price variation on non-announcement days. Most interestingly, our results show that the role of heterogeneous private information is more prominent when public information shocks are either high or low. Furthermore, we show that heterogeneous private information flow is followed by low trading volume, low total market depth and hidden depth. The pattern is more pronounced on non-announcement days.

Suggested Citation

  • George Jiang & Ingrid Lo, 2011. "Private Information Flow and Price Discovery in the U.S. Treasury Market," Staff Working Papers 11-5, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:11-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/wp11-5.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. "Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
    3. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1990. "A Theory of the Interday Variations in Volume, Variance, and Trading Costs in Securities Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 593-624.
    4. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Heterogeneous Information Arrivals and Return Volatility Dynamics: Uncovering the Long-Run in High Frequency Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 975-1005, July.
    5. Bloomfield, Robert & O'Hara, Maureen & Saar, Gideon, 2005. "The "make or take" decision in an electronic market: Evidence on the evolution of liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 165-199, January.
    6. Copeland, Thomas E & Galai, Dan, 1983. "Information Effects on the Bid-Ask Spread," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1457-1469, December.
    7. Odders-White, Elizabeth R. & Ready, Mark J., 2008. "The probability and magnitude of information events," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 227-248, January.
    8. Fleming, Michael J. & Mizrach, Bruce & Nguyen, Giang, 2018. "The microstructure of a U.S. Treasury ECN: The BrokerTec platform," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 2-22.
    9. Glosten, Lawrence R, 1994. "Is the Electronic Open Limit Order Book Inevitable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1127-1161, September.
    10. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
    11. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2000. "Exchange Rate Returns Standardized by Realized Volatility are (Nearly) Gaussian," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 4(3-4), pages 159-179, September.
    12. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997. "What moves the bond market?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Dec), pages 31-50.
    13. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Erlandsson, Ulf G., 2005. "Exchange Rates and Markov Switching Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 314-320, July.
    14. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    15. Jiang, George J. & Lo, Ingrid & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2011. "Information Shocks, Liquidity Shocks, Jumps, and Price Discovery: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 527-551, April.
    16. Seung Chan Ahn & Michael Melvin, 2007. "Exchange Rates and FOMC Days," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1245-1266, August.
    17. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
    18. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. "The Summary Informativeness of Stock Trades: An Econometric Analysis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(3), pages 571-595.
    19. Ron Kaniel & Hong Liu, 2006. "So What Orders Do Informed Traders Use?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1867-1914, July.
    20. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(4), pages 523-543, December.
    21. Jones, Charles M. & Kaul, Gautam & Lipson, Marc L., 1994. "Information, trading, and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 127-154, August.
    22. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    23. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
    24. Kerry Back & C. Henry Cao & Gregory A. Willard, 2000. "Imperfect Competition among Informed Traders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2117-2155, October.
    25. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2007. "Real-time price discovery in global stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 251-277, November.
    26. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    27. Paolo Pasquariello & Clara Vega, 2007. "Informed and Strategic Order Flow in the Bond Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1975-2019, November.
    28. Hiroyuki Kasahara & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2014. "Modified Quasi-Likelihood Ratio Test for Regime Switching," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 65(1), pages 25-41, March.
    29. Tobias Rydén & Timo Teräsvirta & Stefan Åsbrink, 1998. "Stylized facts of daily return series and the hidden Markov model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 217-244.
    30. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Do Currency Markets Absorb News Quickly?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 12, pages 477-505, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    31. Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. "How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-1191, September.
    32. Michael J. Barclay, 2003. "Price Discovery and Trading After Hours," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(4), pages 1041-1073.
    33. Goettler, Ronald L. & Parlour, Christine A. & Rajan, Uday, 2009. "Informed traders and limit order markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 67-87, July.
    34. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1201-1234 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:6:p:2623-2654 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Sager, Michael J. & Taylor, Mark P., 2004. "The impact of European Central Bank Governing Council announcements on the foreign exchange market: a microstructural analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1043-1051.
    37. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Panayides, Marios & Venkataraman, Kumar, 2009. "Hidden liquidity: An analysis of order exposure strategies in electronic stock markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 361-383, December.
    38. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
    39. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:1:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1901-1915, October.
    41. Andersen, Torben G, 1996. "Return Volatility and Trading Volume: An Information Flow Interpretation of Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 169-204, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Opschoor, Anne & Taylor, Nick & van der Wel, Michel & van Dijk, Dick, 2014. "Order flow and volatility: An empirical investigation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 185-201.
    2. Manganelli, Simone, 2005. "Duration, volume and volatility impact of trades," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 377-399, November.
    3. Baruch, Shmuel & Panayides, Marios & Venkataraman, Kumar, 2017. "Informed trading and price discovery before corporate events," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 561-588.
    4. Gabor Pinter & Chaojun Wang & Junyuan Zou, 2024. "Size Discount and Size Penalty: Trading Costs in Bond Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 37(7), pages 2156-2190.
    5. Evans, Kevin P. & Speight, Alan E.H., 2010. "Dynamic news effects in high frequency Euro exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 238-258, July.
    6. Ranaldo, Angelo & Somogyi, Fabricius, 2021. "Asymmetric information risk in FX markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 391-411.
    7. Nguyen, Giang & Engle, Robert & Fleming, Michael & Ghysels, Eric, 2020. "Liquidity and volatility in the U.S. Treasury market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 217(2), pages 207-229.
    8. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Dungey, Mardi & Henry, Olan & McKenzie, Michael, 2010. "From Trade-to-Trade in US Treasuries," Working Papers 10446, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 01 May 2010.
    10. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2010. "Trader see, trader do: How do (small) FX traders react to large counterparties' trades?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1283-1302, November.
    11. Paolo Pasquariello & Clara Vega, 2007. "Informed and Strategic Order Flow in the Bond Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1975-2019, November.
    12. Alain P. Chaboud & Benjamin Chiquoine & Erik Hjalmarsson & Clara Vega, 2014. "Rise of the Machines: Algorithmic Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 2045-2084, October.
    13. repec:uts:finphd:39 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Lin, Hai & Lo, Ingrid & Qiao, Rui, 2021. "Macroeconomic news announcements and market efficiency: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    15. Dungey, Mardi & McKenzie, Michael & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2009. "Empirical evidence on jumps in the term structure of the US Treasury Market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 430-445, June.
    16. Abad, David & Pascual, Roberto, 2015. "The friction-free weighted price contribution," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 226-239.
    17. Fleming, Michael J. & Mizrach, Bruce & Nguyen, Giang, 2018. "The microstructure of a U.S. Treasury ECN: The BrokerTec platform," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 2-22.
    18. Zhu, Hongyu & Yamamoto, Ryuichi, 2022. "Order submission, information asymmetry, and tick size," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    19. repec:uts:finphd:38 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Chris D'Souza & Ingrid Lo & Stephen Sapp, 2007. "Price Formation and Liquidity Provision in Short-Term Fixed Income Markets," Staff Working Papers 07-27, Bank of Canada.
    21. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2010. "Whose trades convey information? Evidence from a cross-section of traders," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 101-128, February.
    22. Czech, Robert & Huang, Shiyang & Lou, Dong & Wang, Tianyu, 2021. "Informed trading in government bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1253-1274.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial markets; Market structure and pricing;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:11-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.