Exchange Rate Returns Standardized by Realized Volatility are (Nearly) Gaussian
It is well known that high-frequency asset returns are fat-tailed relative to the Gaussian distribution, and that the fat tails are typically reduced but not eliminated when returns are standardized by volatilities estimated from popular models such as GARCH. We consider two major dollar exchange rates, and we show that returns standardized instead by the realized volatilities of Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold and Labys (1999) are very nearly Gaussian. We perform both univariate and multivariate analyses, we trace the different effects of the different standardizations to differences in information sets, and we draw implications for the presence of jumps in exchange rate diffusions.
|Date of creation:||26 Oct 1999|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: U.S.A.; New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics . 44 West 4th Street. New York, New York 10012-1126|
Phone: (212) 998-0100
Web page: http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/finance/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Drost, Feike C & Nijman, Theo E & Werker, Bas J M, 1998.
"Estimation and Testing in Models Containing Both Jump and Conditional Heteroscedasticity,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 237-43, April.
- Drost, F.C. & Nijman, T.E. & Werker, B.J.M., 1994. "Estimation and testing in models containing both jumps and conditional heteroskedasticity," Discussion Paper 1994-105, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999.
"The Distribution of Exchange Rate Volatility,"
Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers
99-08, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999. "The Distribution of Exchange Rate Volatility," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-059, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Torben Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999. "The Distribution of Exchange Rate Volatility," NBER Working Papers 6961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barndorf-Nielsen, O.E. & Shephard, N., 1998.
"Aggregation and Model Construction for Volatility Models,"
141, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Neil Shephard & Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 1998. "Aggregation and model construction for volatility models," Economics Series Working Papers 1998-W07, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-83, November.
- repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:1:p:113-28 is not listed on IDEAS
- Sanjiv R. Das & Rangarajan K. Sundaram, 1998.
"Of Smiles and Smirks: A Term-Structure Perspective,"
New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires
98-024, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Das, Sanjiv Ranjan & Sundaram, Rangarajan K., 1999. "Of Smiles and Smirks: A Term Structure Perspective," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(02), pages 211-239, June.
- Taylor, Stephen J. & Xu, Xinzhong, 1997. "The incremental volatility information in one million foreign exchange quotations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 317-340, December.
- Engle, Robert F & Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria, 1991. "Semiparametric ARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(4), pages 345-59, October.
- Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
- Nelson, Daniel B., 1996. "A Note on the Normalized Errors in ARCH and Stochastic Volatility Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(01), pages 113-128, March.
- Hansen, B.E., 1992.
"Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation,"
RCER Working Papers
322, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-55, January.
- Hsieh, David A, 1991. " Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1839-77, December.
- Hsieh, David A, 1989. "Modeling Heteroscedasticity in Daily Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 307-17, July.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August.
- Bates, David S, 1996. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 69-107.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- Francis X. Diebold & Jinyong Hahn & Anthony S. Tay, 1999. "Multivariate Density Forecast Evaluation And Calibration In Financial Risk Management: High-Frequency Returns On Foreign Exchange," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 661-673, November.
- Tauchen, George E & Pitts, Mark, 1983. "The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 485-505, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fth:nystfi:99-060. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.