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Liquidity, volatility, and flights to safety in the U.S. treasury market: evidence from a new class of dynamic order book models

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Engle
  • Michael J. Fleming
  • Eric Ghysels
  • Giang Nguyen

Abstract

We propose a new class of dynamic order book models that allow us to 1) study episodes of extreme low liquidity and 2) unite liquidity and volatility in one framework through which their joint dynamics can be examined. Liquidity and volatility in the U.S. Treasury securities market are analyzed around the time of economic announcements, throughout the recent financial crisis, and during flight-to-safety episodes. We document that Treasury market depth declines sharply during the crisis, accompanied by increased price volatility, but that trading activity seems unaffected until after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. Our models’ key finding is that price volatility and depth at the best bid and ask prices exhibit a negative feedback relationship and that each becomes more persistent during the crisis. Lastly, we characterize the Treasury market during flights to safety as having much lower market depth, along with higher trading volume and greater price uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Engle & Michael J. Fleming & Eric Ghysels & Giang Nguyen, 2012. "Liquidity, volatility, and flights to safety in the U.S. treasury market: evidence from a new class of dynamic order book models," Staff Reports 590, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:590
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff & Hanno Lustig, 2010. "Why Does the Treasury Issue Tips? The Tips-Treasury Bond Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 16358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Biais, Bruno & Hillion, Pierre & Spatt, Chester, 1995. " An Empirical Analysis of the Limit Order Book and the Order Flow in the Paris Bourse," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1655-1689, December.
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    5. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997. "What moves the bond market?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 31-50.
    6. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Hautsch, Nikolaus & Mihoci, Andrija, 2012. "Modelling and forecasting liquidity supply using semiparametric factor dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 610-625.
    7. Engle, Robert F. & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2006. "A multiple indicators model for volatility using intra-daily data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 3-27.
    8. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2009. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence from the Euro-Area Bond Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 925-957, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Markus Engler & Vahidin Jeleskovic, 2016. "Intraday volatility, trading volume and trading intensity in the interbank market e-MID," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201648, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    2. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht & Min Wei, 2012. "Flights to Safety," Working Paper Research 230, National Bank of Belgium.
    3. repec:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:9-30 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Schneider, Michael & Lillo, Fabrizio & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2016. "How has sovereign bond market liquidity changed? An illiquidity spillover analysis," SAFE Working Paper Series 151, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    5. Geromichalos, Athanasios & Herrenbrueck, Lucas M. & Salyer, Kevin D., 2016. "A search-theoretic model of the term premium," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(3), September.
    6. repec:eee:finlet:v:21:y:2017:i:c:p:264-271 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:3:p:729-742 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:eee:jfinec:v:128:y:2018:i:1:p:103-124 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Krishnan, R. & Mishra, Vinod, 2013. "Intraday liquidity patterns in Indian stock market," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 99-114.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Liquidity (Economics) ; Government securities ; Treasury bonds ; Financial crises ; Bonds - Prices;

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