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Measuring downside risk - realised semivariance

Author

Listed:
  • Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen

  • Silja Kinnebrock

  • Neil Shephard

Abstract

We propose a new measure of risk, based entirely on downwards moves measured using high frequency data. Realised semivariances are shown to have important predictive qualities for future market volatility. The theory of these new measures is spelt out, drawing on some new results from probability theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Silja Kinnebrock & Neil Shephard, 2008. "Measuring downside risk - realised semivariance," OFRC Working Papers Series 2008fe01, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:sbs:wpsefe:2008fe01
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    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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