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Unconventional monetary policy and the dollar: conventional signs, unconventional magnitudes

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Abstract

We examine the effects of unconventional monetary policy surprises on the value of the dollar using high-frequency intraday data and contrast them with the effects of conventional policy tools. Identifying monetary policy surprises from changes in interest rate future prices in narrow windows around policy announcements, we find that monetary policy surprises since the Federal Reserve lowered its policy rate to the effective lower bound have had larger effects on the value of the dollar. In particular, we document that the impact on the dollar has been roughly three times that following conventional policy changes prior to the 2007-08 financial crisis.

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  • Glick, Reuven & Leduc, Sylvain, 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy and the dollar: conventional signs, unconventional magnitudes," Working Paper Series 2015-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2015-18
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2015-18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & Wang, Shing-Yi B. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1051-1068, May.
    2. repec:oup:jeurec:v:15:y:2017:i:1:p:218-243. is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "What does Monetary Policy do to Long‐term Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 447-466, November.
    4. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    5. Joseph Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian Sack, 2011. "The Financial Market Effects of the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 3-43, March.
    6. Stefania D'Amico & Mira Farka, 2011. "The Fed and the Stock Market: An Identification Based on Intraday Futures Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 126-137, January.
    7. Eric Ghysels & Julien Idier & Simone Manganelli & Olivier Vergote, 2017. "A High-Frequency assessment of the ECB Securities Markets Programme," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 218-243.
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    Cited by:

    1. Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara, 2019. "The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 419-447.
    2. De Rezende, Rafael B. & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2018. "A shadow rate without a lower bound constraint," Working Paper Series 355, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    3. Siklos, Pierre L., 2018. "Boom-and-bust cycles in emerging markets: How important is the exchange rate?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 172-187.
    4. repec:eee:jimfin:v:74:y:2017:i:c:p:283-300 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:gam:jijfss:v:7:y:2019:i:1:p:9-:d:203347 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, 2015. "Unsurprising Shocks: Information, Premia, and the Monetary Transmission," Discussion Papers 1613, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Apr 2016.
    7. repec:eee:jimfin:v:75:y:2017:i:c:p:109-127 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:eee:intfin:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:171-189 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Bernhard, Severin & Ebner, Till, 2017. "Cross-border spillover effects of unconventional monetary policies on Swiss asset prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 109-127.
    10. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Exchange rate expectations since the financial crisis: Performance evaluation and the role of monetary policy and safe haven," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 283-300.
    11. Forti Grazzini, Caterina & Rieth, Malte, 2017. "Interest Rates and Exchange Rates in Normal and Crisis Times," Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168281, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. repec:eee:ecofin:v:46:y:2018:i:c:p:15-28 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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