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Identifying and estimating the effects of unconventional monetary policy: How to do it and what have we learned?

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  • Barbara Rossi

Abstract

SummaryThe recent financial crisis led central banks to lower their interest rates in order to stimulate the economy until they hit the zero lower bound. How should one identify monetary policy shocks in unconventional times? Are unconventional monetary policies as effective as conventional ones? And has the monetary policy transmission mechanism changed in the zero lower bound era? This article aims to provide an overview of the econometric challenges of and the solutions to the identification of monetary policy shocks in unconventional times as well as a survey of their empirical effects on the economy.

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  • Barbara Rossi, 2021. "Identifying and estimating the effects of unconventional monetary policy: How to do it and what have we learned?," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 24(1), pages 1-32.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:emjrnl:v:24:y:2021:i:1:p:c1-c32.
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    3. Oliver Holtemöller & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Boreum Kwak, 2020. "Exchange Rates and the Information Channel of Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1906, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Donato Masciandaro, 2023. "How Elastic and Predictable Money Should Be: Flexible Monetary Policy Rules from the Great Moderation to the New Normal Times (1993-2023)," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23196, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    5. Oliver Holtemöller & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Boreum Kwak, 2024. "Is There an Information Channel of Monetary Policy?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2084, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
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    8. Yang, Yang & Tang, Yanling & Cheng, Kai, 2023. "Spillback effects of US unconventional monetary policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    9. Thorsten V. Koeppl & Jeremy M. Kronick & James McNeil, 2024. "Using functional shocks to assess conventional and unconventional monetary policy in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(4), pages 1314-1336, November.
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    12. Mamdouh Abdelkader & Lilia Karnizova, 2024. "Exploring the Environmental Impact of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2406E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    13. Francisco Serranito & Julien Vauday & Nicolas Himounet, 2022. "A Positive Effect of Uncertainty Shocks on the Economy: Is the Chase Over ?," EconomiX Working Papers 2022-26, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    14. Kortela, Tomi & Nelimarkka, Jaakko, 2020. "The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy : identification through the yield curve," Research Discussion Papers 3/2020, Bank of Finland.
    15. Aßhoff, Sina & Belke, Ansgar & Osowski, Thomas, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy and inflation expectations in the Euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    16. Ehrmann, Michael & Gnan, Phillipp & Rieder, Kilian, 2023. "Central Bank Communication by ??? The Economics of Public Policy Leaks," CEPR Discussion Papers 18152, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Alipanah Sabri & Kiss Gábor Dávid, 2022. "The Impact of ECB’s Unconventional Monetary Policy on the German Stock Market Volatility," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 25(s1), pages 17-29.
    18. Davtyan, Karen, 2023. "Unconventional monetary policy and economic inequality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    19. Kortela, Tomi & Nelimarkka, Jaakko, 2020. "The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy: Identification through the yield curve," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2020, Bank of Finland.
    20. Roubyou Said & Ouakil Hicham, 2025. "House Prices and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of Morocco," Economies, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, March.
    21. Tom Beernaert & Nicolas Soenen & Rudi Vander Vennet, 2023. "ECB Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Bank Default Risk," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-22, December.
    22. Shixuan Wang & Rangan Gupta & Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni, 2022. "The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks on US REITs Moments: Evidence from VARs with Functional Shocks," Working Papers 202219, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    23. Martin Baumgärtner & Jens Klose, 2021. "Why central banks announcing liquidity injections is more effective than forward guidance," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 236-256, August.
    24. Cecchetti, Stephen & Feroli, Michael & Kashyap, Anil & Mann, Catherine L. & Schoenholtz, Kermit L., 2020. "Monetary Policy in the Next Recession?," CEPR Discussion Papers 15365, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Jung, Alexander, 2023. "Are monetary policy shocks causal to bank health? Evidence from the euro area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    shock identification; VARs; zero lower bound; unconventional monetary policy; monetary policy; external instruments; forward guidance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior

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