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A Time Series Model of Interest Rates With the Effective Lower Bound

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  • Benjamin K. Johannsen
  • Elmar Mertens

Abstract

Modeling interest rates over samples that include the Great Recession requires taking stock of the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. We propose a flexible time– series approach which includes a “shadow rate”—a notional rate that is less than the ELB during the period in which the bound is binding—without imposing no–arbitrage assumptions.{{p}}The approach allows us to estimate the behavior of trend real rates as well as expected future interest rates in recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin K. Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2016. "A Time Series Model of Interest Rates With the Effective Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-033, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2016-33
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2016.033
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    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/feds/2016/files/2016033pap.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc P. Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 235-316.
    2. Doh, Taeyoung, 2017. "Trend and Uncertainty in the Long-Term Real Interest Rate: Bayesian Exponential Tilting with Survey Data," Research Working Paper RWP 17-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    3. Dennis Bonam & Peter van Els & Jan Willem van den End & Leo de Haan & Irma Hindrayanto, 2018. "The natural rate of interest from a monetary and financial perspective," DNB Occasional Studies 1603, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian Econometrics ; Effective Lower Bound ; Shadow Rate ; State-Space Model ; Term Structure of Interest Rates;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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