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A time series model of interest rates with the effective lower bound

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  • Benjamin K Johannsen
  • Elmar Mertens

Abstract

Modeling nominal interest rates requires their effective lower bound (ELB) to be taken into account. We propose a flexible time series approach that includes a "shadow rate" - a notional rate identical to the actual nominal rate except when the ELB binds. We apply this approach to a trend-cycle decomposition of interest rates and macroeconomic variables that generates competitive interest-rate forecasts. Our estimates of the real-rate trend have edged down somewhat in recent decades, but not significantly so. We identify monetary policy shocks from shadow-rate surprises and find that they were particularly effective at stimulating economic activity during the ELB period.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin K Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2018. "A time series model of interest rates with the effective lower bound," BIS Working Papers 715, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:715
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    Cited by:

    1. Del Negro, Marco & Giannone, Domenico & Giannoni, Marc P. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2019. "Global trends in interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 248-262.
    2. Breach, Tomas & D’Amico, Stefania & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2020. "The term structure and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 388-414.
    3. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    4. Guihai Zhao, 2020. "Learning, Equilibrium Trend, Cycle, and Spread in Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 20-14, Bank of Canada.
    5. Samuel Howorth & Domenico Lombardi & Pierre L. Siklos, 2019. "Together or Apart? Monetary Policy Divergences in the G4," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 191-217, April.
    6. Taeyoung Doh, 2017. "Trend and Uncertainty in the Long-Term Real Interest Rate: Bayesian Exponential Tilting with Survey Data," Research Working Paper RWP 17-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    7. Krustev, Georgi, 2019. "The natural rate of interest and the financial cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 193-210.
    8. Glick, Reuven, 2020. "r* and the global economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    9. Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc P. Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 235-316.
    10. Dennis Bonam & Peter van Els & Jan Willem van den End & Leo de Haan & Irma Hindrayanto, 2018. "The natural rate of interest from a monetary and financial perspective," DNB Occasional Studies 1603, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    11. Fernando M. Duarte & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Leonardo Melosi & Taisuke Nakata, 2020. "Strengthening the FOMC’s Framework in View of the Effective Lower Bound and Some Considerations Related to Time-Inconsistent Strategies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-067, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Yakov Ben-Haim & Jan Willem van den End, 2019. "Fundamental uncertainty about the natural rate of interest: Info-gap as guide for monetary policy," DNB Working Papers 650, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    13. Rossi, Barbara, 2019. "Identifying and Estimating the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: How to Do It And What Have We Learned?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14064, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Claus, Edda & Claus, Iris & Krippner, Leo, 2018. "Asset market responses to conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks in the United States," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 270-282.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    shadow rate; effective lower bound; trend real rate; monetary policy shocks; bayesian time series;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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