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A Shadow Rate New Keynesian Model

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  • Jing Cynthia Wu
  • Ji Zhang

Abstract

We propose a tractable and coherent framework that captures both conventional and unconventional monetary policies with the shadow fed funds rate. Empirically, we document the shadow rate's resemblance to an overall financial conditions index, various private interest rates, the Fed's balance sheet, and the Taylor rule. Theoretically, we demonstrate the impact of unconventional policies, such as QE and lending facilities, on the economy is identical to that of a negative shadow rate, making the latter a useful summary statistic for these policies. Our model generates the data-consistent result: a negative supply shock is always contractionary. It also salvages the New Keynesian model from the zero lower bound induced structural break.

Suggested Citation

  • Jing Cynthia Wu & Ji Zhang, 2016. "A Shadow Rate New Keynesian Model," NBER Working Papers 22856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22856
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    1. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Gordon, Grey & Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2015. "Nonlinear adventures at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 182-204.
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    1. repec:eee:inecon:v:118:y:2019:i:c:p:200-216 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2018. "The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy: A new approach," Economics Working Papers 1638, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    3. Hartmann, Philipp & Smets, Frank, 2018. "The first twenty years of the European Central Bank: monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2219, European Central Bank.
    4. Fève, Patrick & Moura, Alban & Pierrard, Olivier, 2019. "Shadow Banking and the Great Recession: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," TSE Working Papers 19-996, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    5. Wu, Jing Cynthia & Zhang, Ji, 2019. "Global effective lower bound and unconventional monetary policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 200-216.
    6. Fang Yao & Margarita Rubio, 2017. "Macroprudential policies in a low interest-rate environment," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2017/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    7. Patrick Feve, 2019. "Shadow Banking and the Great Recession," 2019 Meeting Papers 199, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Benjamin K. Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2016. "A Time Series Model of Interest Rates With the Effective Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-033, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
    9. Hashmat Khan & Louis Phaneuf & Jean Gardy Victor, 2018. "Rules-Based Monetary Policy and the Threat of Indeterminacy When Trend Inflation is Low," Carleton Economic Papers 18-08, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 08 Mar 2019.
    10. Barbara Rossi, 2018. "Identifying and estimating the effects of unconventional monetary policy in the data: How to do It and what have we learned?," Economics Working Papers 1641, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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