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Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset: Comment

Author

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  • Michael D. Bauer
  • Glenn D. Rudebusch
  • Jing Cynthia Wu

Abstract

Term premia implied by maximum likelihood estimates of affine term structure models are misleading because of small-sample bias. We show that accounting for this bias alters the conclusions about the trend, cycle, and macroeconomic determinants of the term premia estimated in Wright (2011). His term premium estimates are essentially acyclical, and often just parallel the secular trend in longterm interest rates. In contrast, bias-corrected term premia show pronounced countercyclical behavior, consistent with theoretical and empirical arguments about movements in risk premia.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2014. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 323-337, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:104:y:2014:i:1:p:323-37
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.1.323
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage-Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 143-178, September.
    2. Kim, Don H. & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2012. "Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(01), pages 241-272, April.
    3. Lustig, Hanno & Roussanov, Nikolai & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2014. "Countercyclical currency risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 527-553.
    4. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, August.
    5. Harvey, Campbell R., 1989. "Time-varying conditional covariances in tests of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 289-317.
    6. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "Correcting Estimation Bias in Dynamic Term Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 454-467, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Stillwagon, Josh R., 2015. "Testing the expectations hypothesis with survey forecasts: The impacts of consumer sentiment and the zero lower bound in an I(2) CVAR," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 85-101.
    2. Rodrigo Vergara & Elías Albagli, 2015. "Tasas de Interés de Largo Plazo en Economías Desarrolladas: Tendencias Recientes e Implicancias de Política Monetaria en Chile," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 52, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 338-341, January.
    4. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Andrey Ermolov, 2016. "Macro Risks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 22839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Mirko Abbritti & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Yuliya Lovcha & Antonio Moreno, 2016. "Term Structure Persistence," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 14(2), pages 331-352.
    6. P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-71, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    7. Emiliano Luttini & Michael Pedersen, 2015. "Bank's Price Setting and Lending Maturity: Evidence from an Inflation- Targeting Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 762, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Juneja, Januj A., 2016. "Financial crises and estimation bias in international bond markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 593-607.
    9. Bauer, Michael D. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2017. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," Working Paper Series 2017-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. Luis Ceballos & Alberto Naudon & Damián Romero, 2016. "Nominal term structure and term premia: evidence from Chile," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(29), pages 2721-2735, June.
    11. repec:eee:jebusi:v:93:y:2017:i:c:p:46-61 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Luis Ceballos & Damián Romero, 2015. "Decomposing Long-Term Interest Rates: An International Comparison," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 767, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Vasilios Plakandaras & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "The Term Premium as a Leading Macroeconomic Indicator," Working Papers 201613, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    14. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2017. "The interest rate effects of government bond purchases away from the lower bound," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 165-186.
    15. Hakan Berument & Richard T. Froyen, 2015. "Monetary policy and interest rates under inflation targeting in Australia and New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 171-188, August.
    16. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "What caused the decline in long-term yields?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue july8.
    17. Ichiue, Hibiki & Shimizu, Yuhei, 2015. "Determinants of long-term yields: A panel data analysis of major countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34, pages 44-55.
    18. repec:eee:jfinec:v:125:y:2017:i:1:p:163-181 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-71, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    20. Tsz-Kin Chung & Cho-Hoi Hui & Ka-Fai Li, 2015. "Term-Structure Modelling at the Zero Lower Bound: Implications for Estimating the Term Premium," Working Papers 212015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    21. Yung, Julieta, 2014. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 207, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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